197
FXUS62 KMHX 050211
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1011 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered offshore through the
weekend bringing return flow and oppressive heat and humidity
to the area. At the same time a weakening cold front will
approach from the west this weekend and eventually stall over
the Eastern Seaboard before dissipating Sunday into Monday. This
will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday with daily chances for afternoon showers
and storms persisting into the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Thursday...Surface troughing across central NC has
supported shower and thunderstorm development to our west over
the past few hours. Offshore surface ridging and upper level
ridging overhead has limited our forcing and diminshed shower
activity as it moves closer to the western CWA border. A slight
chance of isolated showers remains in the forecast for the far
northwestern corner of the FA for the next couple of hours. If
any precipitation is able to fall, it will be light. After this
activity dies out, mostly to partly cloudy skies will stick
around through the overnight hours as mid and upper level clouds
spread eastward. Lows will remain quite warm in the low to mid
70s.

Some hi-res guidance is trying to show isolated shower
development along the coast near sunrise, but forcing will still
be too weak to support anything substantial. To follow this
trend in the models, however, PoPs have been slightly increased
along the immediate coast, but any activity should be light if
anything is able to develop at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330PM Thursday... Not much change in the upper or surface
pattern for Friday as upper ridging remains centered over the
Southeast and surface ridging remains centered offshore with a
thermal trough setting up across the Piedmont once again Fri
afternoon. This will bring our first threat for oppressive heat
and humidity this weekend as S`rly flow continues to advect
moisture N`wards allowing dewpoints to creep up into the 70s
across ENC while low level thicknesses support temps in the mid
to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and
OBX. Combined with the humidity it will feel like its closer to
105-110 across the Coastal Plain and 95-100 across coastal
locations. With this in mind have elected to put up heat
advisories for our inland zones as the highest confidence for
reaching criteria is noted here. Make sure to drink plenty of
fluids and limit strenuous outdoor activity if you plan to be
outside for extended periods of time on Friday given this threat
for heat related impacts. Otherwise much like Thursday, shower
and thunderstorm activity should begin to develop across the
Piedmont in the afternoon and spread E`wards eventually reaching
the Coastal Plain in the mid to late afternoon timeframe. With
Hi-Res model support and ensemble probability`s showing a
>30-40% chance for precip tomorrow afternoon have kept SChc
PoP`s and a thunder threat in for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven,
  return this weekend into next week

Our most impactful weather likely occurs this weekend as
oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once
again. Upper ridging will remain overhead, while at the surface,
high pressure will remain anchored offshore allowing SSW flow
and deeper moisture to return to the area. Temps will grad warm
late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and
humidity to return. High temps will soar into the mid to upper
90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with
dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s. This will likely lead
to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg for many areas, esp
Sat.

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next
week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and
waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep
mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this
weekend into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit
overall svr threat.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 730 PM Thurs...As we get towards sunset and the early
evening hours shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to
enter into the Coastal Plain from the west in association with a
trough across the Piedmont. Latest Hi-Res guidance only
suggests a 10-20% chance of precip occuring across the Coastal
Plain as much if not all of the activity should be dissipating
as it nears the area, but kept VCSH in PGV where there is a ~20%
chance of the showers and/or thunderstorms persisting as they
move eastward. Whether showers dissipate or not, there will be
an increase in cloud cover Thursday night, although current
expectation is for ceilings to be VFR. There is a 10-20% chance
of MVFR ceilings developing. As a result, kept in a FEW/SCT
deck at 3kft across the western terminals where the best chance
for lower ceilings exist. Tomorrow, diurnal cu is expected to
develop along with gusty SSW winds around 15 kt.

LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Tuesday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend and
early next week, which could bring periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Thurs...Overall benign weather is forecast to
start the period as latest obs show widespread 2-4 ft seas and
5-15 kt S-SSW winds across our waters this afternoon. Expecting
little in the way of change through Fri morning as 2-4 ft seas
and 5-15 kt SSW`rly winds will persist. However, as we get into
Fri afternoon a thermal trough looks to set up across North
Carolina which will tighten the pressure gradient slightly as
this trough interacts with ridging offshore. As it stands now
this should allow for a brief uptick in the winds to 15-20 kts
with at least a few gusts near 25 kts at times especially across
the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and northern Coastal waters.
For now however, will hold off on any SCA`s as HREF probs of
gusts greater than 25 kts is low 10-30% across these waters but
SCA`s may become necessary tonight if things trend up overnight.
Otherwise, as winds increase seas will build as well up to 3 to
5 ft Fri afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Typical summertime pattern expected through
the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Fri into Sat,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is
potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts late Fri afternoon
and Fri night, which could bring SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15
kt Sun and Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with
potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night into Sat.
May continue to see longer period swells from very distant
Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on
wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ029-044>046-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF/OJC
MARINE...CQD/RCF