596
FNUS76 KMFR 050354
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Shelly Fire...USFS
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
854 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 PDT on July 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend
as a strong ridge of high pressure settles in. There is major
heat risk over the next three to four days, and all people could
be susceptible to heat related illness. On Friday, there is some
question about which will dominate, the general wind of the local
wind. For any generally south aspect, I would expect the diurnal
wind dominates with upslope winds for much of the day. For more
shaded, westerly aspects, I would expect upslope winds only on the
lower half of the ridges, with the general north-northeast winds
dominating. The general wind from the north-northeast should also
dominate at any ridge top.

The hottest day will be Saturday with the upper ridge shifting
eastward Sunday into Monday. The shifting ridge will lead to
enhanced winds in the afternoon Saturday and Sunday, with
critical conditions possible as a result. As a result of stronger
winds, the general wind will dominate, generally being from the
west-northwest. In addition to the critical hot, dry and windy
conditions, the lower atmosphere will be very dry and unstable;
and a plume dominated fire is possible if fire related conditions
are met.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....85-90 degrees.
Min humidity........Around 11 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast around 2 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....67-70 degrees.
Max humidity........Around 20 percent.
Eye level winds.....North around 2 mph in the evening becoming
down-slope/down-valley except at the ridge
tops and east aspects where a northeast
wind of 1-3 mph is possible.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming down-slope/down-valley. East
aspects and ridge tops may observe a
northeast wind of 2-5 mph is possible.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....95-100 degrees.
Min humidity........Around 10 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light down-slope/down-valley winds becoming
northwest around 3 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light down-slope/down-valley winds becoming
northwest 7 to 14 mph in the afternoon, with gusts
up to 25 mph possible.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL increasing to 11000 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

$$
Forecaster...MILES
Requested by...Frank Henderson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417394.0/MFR
.DELDT 07/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL frank.henderson@usda.gov