079
FXUS62 KMFL 020628
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper-level (H500) ridging will gradually expand further over the
southeastern CONUS, allowing for an easterly to southeasterly
mean steering flow to prevail across South Florida. Boundary layer
(SFC-850 mb) winds from the southeast will remain consistent,
leading to the greatest convective coverage over the interior and
southwestern portions of the CWFA. However, convection may drift
closer to the east coast, particularly where a westward
augmentation in the steering flow materializes.

The synoptic pattern is expected to remain intact through
Thursday with little deviation over the region. A few subtle low-
level inverted troughs could bring a surge of moisture, leading to
intermittent rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing at
atypical hours, not following the typical diurnal cycle. These
could cause nuisance rainfall and potentially localized flooding.

Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the upper
80s along the immediate east coast to the low 90s, with convective
debris limiting higher temperatures. Overnight lows will range
from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A robust mid-level ridge will become established over the southeastern
United States and persist through the latter part of the week. At
the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will
extend into South Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
setup will maintain a typical E/SE flow summertime pattern across
the region. Shower and thunderstorm development will be driven by
sea breezes, with the east coast sea breeze dominating due to the
prevailing east to southeasterly wind flow. Convection will
initiate over the local waters and the east coast each morning,
shifting towards the interior and west coast in the afternoon and
early evening. The lack of mid to upper-level support will limit
the chances for strong thunderstorm development, though an
isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out, particularly over the
interior sections each afternoon, potentially bringing gusty winds
and heavy downpours.

As the ridge builds and moves closer to the region throughout the
week, temperatures will gradually increase. High temperatures in
the middle of the week will range from around 90 degrees along the
east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. By the end
of the week, high temperatures will range from the lower 90s in
the east coast metro areas to the mid-90s in interior Southwest
Florida.

Heading into the weekend, the mid- level ridge will
gradually push into the western Atlantic as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the Northern and Central Plains. While the ridge
will still influence South Floridas weather pattern, there will be
rising uncertainty as the lower-level wind flow becomes more
south to southeasterly. Current guidance suggests that deeper
layer moisture may move into the region over the weekend, though
there is disagreement on the timing. This, coupled with the
forecast period extending into the weekend, increases uncertainty.
High temperatures over the weekend will generally remain around
90 degrees along the east coast and range from the lower to
mid-90s over Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Scattered showers will be possible through the morning hours at
the east coast terminals, with the primary thunderstorm threat
generally focused over the Interior and West Coast this afternoon.
Winds will generally be SErly over the east coast terminals, with
a wind shift to the SW expected at KAPF this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light to moderate ESE flow and low seas will prevail through much
of the week. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected
each morning, eventually developing over the Gulf waters in the
evening hours.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The risk of rip currents will increase heading into Wed/Thu time
frame as low-lvl onshore (easterly) flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  80  91  80 /  60  40  40  10
West Kendall     91  78  92  78 /  60  40  40  10
Opa-Locka        92  80  92  80 /  60  40  40  10
Homestead        91  80  90  80 /  50  30  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  81 /  50  40  40  10
N Ft Lauderdale  91  81  90  81 /  50  40  40  10
Pembroke Pines   93  80  92  80 /  60  40  40  10
West Palm Beach  91  80  91  80 /  50  30  40   0
Boca Raton       91  80  92  80 /  50  30  40  10
Naples           91  78  93  77 /  60  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Carr