Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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790 FXUS62 KMFL 021630 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1230 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Upper-level (H500) ridging will gradually expand further over the southeastern CONUS, allowing for an easterly to southeasterly mean steering flow to prevail across South Florida. Boundary layer (SFC-850 mb) winds from the southeast will remain consistent, leading to the greatest convective coverage over the interior and southwestern portions of the CWFA. However, convection may drift closer to the east coast, particularly where a westward augmentation in the steering flow materializes. The synoptic pattern is expected to remain intact through Thursday with little deviation over the region. A few subtle low- level inverted troughs could bring a surge of moisture, leading to intermittent rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing at atypical hours, not following the typical diurnal cycle. These could cause nuisance rainfall and potentially localized flooding. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the low 90s, with convective debris limiting higher temperatures. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A robust mid-level ridge will become established over the southeastern United States and persist through the latter part of the week. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will extend into South Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This setup will maintain a typical E/SE flow summertime pattern across the region. Shower and thunderstorm development will be driven by sea breezes, with the east coast sea breeze dominating due to the prevailing east to southeasterly wind flow. Convection will initiate over the local waters and the east coast each morning, shifting towards the interior and west coast in the afternoon and early evening. The lack of mid to upper-level support will limit the chances for strong thunderstorm development, though an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out, particularly over the interior sections each afternoon, potentially bringing gusty winds and heavy downpours. As the ridge builds and moves closer to the region throughout the week, temperatures will gradually increase. High temperatures in the middle of the week will range from around 90 degrees along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. By the end of the week, high temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the east coast metro areas to the mid-90s in interior Southwest Florida. Heading into the weekend, the mid- level ridge will gradually push into the western Atlantic as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Northern and Central Plains. While the ridge will still influence South Floridas weather pattern, there will be rising uncertainty as the lower-level wind flow becomes more south to southeasterly. Current guidance suggests that deeper layer moisture may move into the region over the weekend, though there is disagreement on the timing. This, coupled with the forecast period extending into the weekend, increases uncertainty. High temperatures over the weekend will generally remain around 90 degrees along the east coast and range from the lower to mid-90s over Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 MVFR to VFR ceilings prevail this afternoon as scattered thunderstorms persist around east coast sites. Most activity should push inland towards interior South Florida through the afternoon. Chance for a few isolated showers during the early morning hours although not quite enough confidence to include in TAFs with this update. Southeasterly flow this afternoon will become easterly by late Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Light to moderate ESE flow and low seas will prevail through much of the week. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected each morning, eventually developing over the Gulf waters in the evening hours. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The risk of rip currents will increase heading into Wed/Thu time frame as low-lvl onshore (easterly) flow increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 91 80 91 / 40 40 10 40 West Kendall 78 92 78 92 / 40 40 10 40 Opa-Locka 80 92 80 92 / 40 40 10 40 Homestead 80 90 80 90 / 30 40 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 81 90 / 40 40 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 81 90 81 90 / 40 40 10 40 Pembroke Pines 80 92 80 94 / 40 40 10 40 West Palm Beach 80 91 80 91 / 30 40 0 30 Boca Raton 80 92 80 91 / 30 40 10 30 Naples 78 93 77 93 / 40 60 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Rizzuto