499
FXUS62 KMFL 021854
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
254 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper-level (H500) ridging will gradually expand further over the
southeastern CONUS, allowing for an easterly to southeasterly
mean steering flow to prevail across South Florida. Boundary layer
(SFC-850 mb) winds from the southeast will remain consistent,
leading to the greatest convective coverage over the interior and
southwestern portions of the CWFA. However, convection may drift
closer to the east coast, particularly where a westward
augmentation in the steering flow materializes.

The synoptic pattern is expected to remain intact through
Thursday with little deviation over the region. A few subtle low-
level inverted troughs could bring a surge of moisture, leading to
intermittent rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing at
atypical hours, not following the typical diurnal cycle. These
could cause nuisance rainfall and potentially localized flooding.

Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the upper
80s along the immediate east coast to the low 90s, with convective
debris limiting higher temperatures. Overnight lows will range
from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The broad mid-level ridge will persist as the dominant synoptic
feature over South Florida for most of the week. At the surface,
South Florida will lie on the periphery of a high-pressure area
centered in the western Atlantic. This will maintain an east to
southeasterly wind flow through the mid and latter portions of the
week. Enough moisture will continue to advect into the region,
with model soundings indicating moderately favorable precipitable
water (PWAT) values. Consequently, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop each afternoon and evening as sea breezes move
inland and interact. The prevailing east to southeasterly wind
flow will cause most convective activity to initiate near the east
coast metro areas in the early afternoon, gradually shifting
towards the interior and west coast later in the afternoon and
into the early evening. The primary hazard will be the potential
for localized flooding due to heavy downpours, as storm motion
will remain slow.

Temperatures throughout the week will remain warm, with high
temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most areas. Heat index
values may range between 105 and 110 during the late morning and
afternoon hours. However, these values are unlikely to persist
long enough to meet advisory criteria due to the higher chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Continuous monitoring will be
necessary as the week progresses.

Some tropical moisture will advect around the southern periphery
of the Bermuda High and approach South Florida this weekend,
slightly increasing rain chances across the area. The typical
diurnal summertime storm pattern will persist, with most
convection concentrating along the sea breezes in the afternoon
and evening, while overnight storms will predominantly occur over
the local waters. The increased cloud cover and higher rain
chances will moderate temperatures, keeping them closer to normal
and mitigating any extreme heat, providing a sense of relief.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

MVFR to VFR ceilings prevail this afternoon as scattered
thunderstorms persist around east coast sites. Most activity
should push inland towards interior South Florida through the
afternoon. Chance for a few isolated showers during the early
morning hours although not quite enough confidence to include in
TAFs with this update. Southeasterly flow this afternoon will
become easterly by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light to moderate ESE flow and low seas will prevail through much
of the week. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected
each morning, eventually developing over the Gulf waters in the

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The risk of rip currents will increase heading into Wed/Thu time

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  80  91 /  40  40  10  40
West Kendall     78  92  78  92 /  40  40  10  40
Opa-Locka        80  92  80  92 /  40  40  10  40
Homestead        80  90  80  90 /  30  40  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  81  90 /  40  40  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  81  90 /  40  40  10  40
Pembroke Pines   80  92  80  94 /  40  40  10  40
West Palm Beach  80  91  80  91 /  30  40   0  30
Boca Raton       80  92  80  91 /  30  40  10  30
Naples           78  93  77  93 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....CMP
AVIATION...Rizzuto