378
FXUS62 KMFL 051721
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
121 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The SE US ridge will remain the main mid-lvl feature of interest
through the short-term period, although it will continue to weaken
and erode as troughing shifts into the central/NE US and a closed
low over the Atlantic retrogrades towards it. Synoptic low-lvl
flow will remain weak, favoring sea breeze-driven circulations,
and the inland progression of both the Gulf and Atlantic breezes.
Additionally, moisture will pool over the area with PWATs
increasing back into the 2-2.2 inch range. Consequently expect
greater storm coverage today relative to yesterday, with the focus
largely being just inland of the coasts along both sea breezes
with initial storm propagation towards the Interior, and then
potentially propagating back eastward late in the afternoon. Given
the increased moisture and lack of deep-layer steering flow,
localized hydro concerns will be possible with localized
accumulations in the 3-5 inch range being advertised by hi-res
guidance. The bulk of guidance keeps the heaviest accumulations
focused over the Interior, which would help alleviate any hydro
concerns, however, guidance often initiates convection too far
inland in these regimes so would not rule out the potential for
heavy rain along the edges of the east coast metro.

Although precipitation and convective cloud cover should be more
widespread this afternoon, the weakening of the synoptic easterly
flow will allow for generally warmer temperatures (particularly
over the east coast) so yet another day of peak heat indices
105-110 (perhaps even locally higher in the Interior/west) is
expected. Thus, the heat advisory remains in effect for the whole
area through 8 PM.

Saturday will feature a similar synoptic pattern, although a
small wrinkle will be that drier mid-lvl air will impinge on
northeastern portions of the area on the fringes of a cut-off low
over the Atlantic, which could focus the best rain chances over
the southern half of the peninsula (with perhaps even a weak
northwesterly component of the low-lvl flow, pushing things into
the MD/Broward vicinity later in the day). Once again the two
concerns of the day will be localized flooding due to the abundant
moisture and slow storm motions, and excessive heat, particularly
over the north and west areas where precip coverage may be
somewhat reduced. Heat Advisories may be needed again for Saturday
afternoon in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The resilient SE ridge will hold serve through the extended period,
locking us in our own tropical bubble of sorts and keeping any
mid-latitude influences (i.e. fronts) north of the area. The low-lvl flow
will generally be S-SE, albeit likely modified at times by sea-breeze
circulations, as SFL remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high
pressure. The progged SAL plume early next week has shifted a bit further
west with the latest guidance, so rain chances may remain near climo
through much of next week with perhaps a focus over northern and western
areas given the S-SErly flow. Naturally with only the weak ridge in place
and the lack of a defined SAL push, hydro will remain a concern each
afternoon. The other concern will be heat, which will be largely
dependent upon the coverage and initiation time of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Increasing convective activity the next few hours with chances
for VCTS near all sites through the evening. Most guidance shows
activity initiating just inland of East Coast sites, but some
rogue showers and storms could drift eastward. Short-fuse TEMPOs
could be needed. Light easterly flow at the east coast sites, with
light westerly flow at APF. Generally VFR conditions with light
and variable winds return after 02Z. Chances for VCSH/VCTS return
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters
into the weekend as ridging prevails, although winds could shift
to the W-SW over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze
develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms could develop each day, resulting in locally
higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  79  92 /  30  40  20  40
West Kendall     76  92  77  92 /  30  40  20  40
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  92 /  30  40  20  40
Homestead        78  91  79  90 /  30  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  80  92 /  20  30  20  40
Pembroke Pines   78  94  79  94 /  30  30  20  40
West Palm Beach  76  92  78  92 /  10  30  10  40
Boca Raton       78  92  79  92 /  10  30  10  40
Naples           79  92  79  92 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Culver