Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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275 FXUS62 KMFL 261525 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1125 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1124 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 South Florida remains embedded in a weak synoptic flow regime, characterized by a light westerly flow pattern from SFC to 500 mb. This westerly flow has favored the spawning of convection early this morning, with a disorganized cluster of pulse storms traversing the interior and already reaching the east coast as of 11 am this morning. With PW of 2.11 inches (per 12Z MFL sounding) and aforementioned lighter flow regime, localized flooding will be the primary concern/hazard today. The primary areas of focus will be where the Atlantic sea-breeze circulation intersects outflow from storms traversing the interior, as this is likely where highest low- level convergence and mesoscale forcing for ascent will be realized. With a footprint of higher rainfall over much of the east coast yesterday and continued rainfall threat today, we cannot rule out an isolated flash flooding instance. Tomorrow will feature little deviation in the overall synoptic regime, though a subtle warming aloft will result in weaker lapse rates, and perhaps a subtle downward trend in overall atmospheric moisture (PW). WSW surface/boundary layer winds will continue to favor the development of convection initially spawning over the interior, with a gradually progression towards the east coast and eventual interaction with the Atlantic sea-breeze and associated low- level convergence zones. Expect similarity high rainfall chances tomorrow, with urban flooding again being the primary concern through this period. Warm and generally seasonable temperatures can be expected through tomorrow, with maximum temperatures ranging from upper 80s/lower 90s. Overnight, mild/warm temperatures in the low to mid 70s can be expected for the interior/coasts respectively. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Overall, the typical summertime pattern will continue through most of the long term period with warm temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will be a gradual transition at the synoptic scale from Friday through the weekend as weak mid-level troughing over the Florida Peninsula finally gets kicked out by extensive mid-level ridging building over the Gulf states. Throughout this time period, mesoscale dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation, with near-normal PWAT values supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With steady easterly flow at the surface, the convection regime will generally follow isolated showers or storms over the East Coast Metro in the morning, then increasing in coverage and shifting over the interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak flow pattern. One factor in the forecast that could lead to less convective activity is the potential for the first notable Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume to move over South Florida over the weekend into early next week. This would be pretty typical for late June or early July in our area, but the only impact aside from slightly hazy skies would be the drier air dampening daytime convection a bit. Temperatures for the long term period will remain near to just above our seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and peak heat indices in the triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 743 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the morning hours, though MVFR conditions may linger for an hour or two at near/over APF. Conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, as SCT/NMRS TSRA develop this afternoon due to westerly surface winds converging with the Atlantic sea-breeze. As a result, brief IFR/LIFR conditions may be realized over TAF sites, and short- fused TEMPOs could be necessary. W/SW winds generally become light/vrb after 00Z. Sea breezes may cause SSE/WSW wind shift over east/west coasts respectively. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local waters for most of the week. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will be generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and seas each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 77 92 78 / 80 20 60 20 West Kendall 91 75 92 76 / 80 30 60 10 Opa-Locka 91 77 92 78 / 80 20 60 20 Homestead 91 77 91 78 / 80 20 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 90 78 / 80 30 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 92 78 / 80 20 60 20 Pembroke Pines 92 78 93 79 / 80 30 60 20 West Palm Beach 90 75 92 76 / 80 20 60 20 Boca Raton 90 76 92 77 / 80 20 60 20 Naples 89 79 90 79 / 70 10 60 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...SRB