790
FXUS62 KMFL 021630
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1230 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper-level (H500) ridging will gradually expand further over the
southeastern CONUS, allowing for an easterly to southeasterly
mean steering flow to prevail across South Florida. Boundary layer
(SFC-850 mb) winds from the southeast will remain consistent,
leading to the greatest convective coverage over the interior and
southwestern portions of the CWFA. However, convection may drift
closer to the east coast, particularly where a westward
augmentation in the steering flow materializes.

The synoptic pattern is expected to remain intact through
Thursday with little deviation over the region. A few subtle low-
level inverted troughs could bring a surge of moisture, leading to
intermittent rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing at
atypical hours, not following the typical diurnal cycle. These
could cause nuisance rainfall and potentially localized flooding.

Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the upper
80s along the immediate east coast to the low 90s, with convective
debris limiting higher temperatures. Overnight lows will range
from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A robust mid-level ridge will become established over the southeastern
United States and persist through the latter part of the week. At
the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will
extend into South Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
setup will maintain a typical E/SE flow summertime pattern across
the region. Shower and thunderstorm development will be driven by
sea breezes, with the east coast sea breeze dominating due to the
prevailing east to southeasterly wind flow. Convection will
initiate over the local waters and the east coast each morning,
shifting towards the interior and west coast in the afternoon and
early evening. The lack of mid to upper-level support will limit
the chances for strong thunderstorm development, though an
isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out, particularly over the
interior sections each afternoon, potentially bringing gusty winds
and heavy downpours.

As the ridge builds and moves closer to the region throughout the
week, temperatures will gradually increase. High temperatures in
the middle of the week will range from around 90 degrees along the
east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. By the end
of the week, high temperatures will range from the lower 90s in
the east coast metro areas to the mid-90s in interior Southwest
Florida.

Heading into the weekend, the mid- level ridge will
gradually push into the western Atlantic as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the Northern and Central Plains. While the ridge
will still influence South Floridas weather pattern, there will be
rising uncertainty as the lower-level wind flow becomes more
south to southeasterly. Current guidance suggests that deeper
layer moisture may move into the region over the weekend, though
there is disagreement on the timing. This, coupled with the
forecast period extending into the weekend, increases uncertainty.
High temperatures over the weekend will generally remain around
90 degrees along the east coast and range from the lower to
mid-90s over Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

MVFR to VFR ceilings prevail this afternoon as scattered
thunderstorms persist around east coast sites. Most activity
should push inland towards interior South Florida through the
afternoon. Chance for a few isolated showers during the early
morning hours although not quite enough confidence to include in
TAFs with this update. Southeasterly flow this afternoon will
become easterly by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light to moderate ESE flow and low seas will prevail through much
of the week. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected
each morning, eventually developing over the Gulf waters in the
evening hours.
&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The risk of rip currents will increase heading into Wed/Thu time
frame as low-lvl onshore (easterly) flow increases.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  80  91 /  40  40  10  40
West Kendall     78  92  78  92 /  40  40  10  40
Opa-Locka        80  92  80  92 /  40  40  10  40
Homestead        80  90  80  90 /  30  40  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  81  90 /  40  40  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  81  90 /  40  40  10  40
Pembroke Pines   80  92  80  94 /  40  40  10  40
West Palm Beach  80  91  80  91 /  30  40   0  30
Boca Raton       80  92  80  91 /  30  40  10  30
Naples           78  93  77  93 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Rizzuto