Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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438 FXUS62 KMFL 300527 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Mid level ridging will remain in place for the rest of this afternoon across the Florida Peninsula while the surface ridge axis of an area of high pressure centered in the Western Atlantic remains close to the region. This has allowed for a slight uptick in the easterly wind flow this afternoon across the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly over the interior and west coast where the sea breeze and outflow boundaries from ongoing thunderstorms interact with each other. Heading into this evening, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior sections will dissipate due to loss of daytime heating. During the overnight hours, a slight weakness in the mid level ridge will develop as a weak mid level vorticity impulse pushes towards Central and Southern Florida from the Atlantic. This may provide support for some additional shower and thunderstorm activity to develop over the local waters as well as the east coast metro areas heading towards the pre-dawn hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas. Heading into Sunday, the weak mid level impulse will slowly push across South Florida as the day progresses. This mid level energy may provide a bit more lift and support through the day which could enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage as Sunday progresses. As the sea breezes develop, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase across the east coast metro areas as the morning progresses. With the weak easterly wind flow in place, these storms will gradually push towards and favor the interior and west coast as the afternoon progresses. While strong thunderstorm development will still remain rather limited, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially over the interior and western sections in the afternoon as the mid level impulse moves over the region during peak diurnal heating. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. As the steering flow will continue to remain light, storms will continue to be slow moving. The slow storm motion combined with the potential for heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding especially across the metro areas. High temperatures on Sunday will generally range from the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior and west coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Not much has changed in forecast philosophy for the lon term. Models continue to depict an expanding upper/mid level ridge over the region, which gradually deepens and aligns with sfc high pressure early next week. This will keep in place a prevailing ESE low over SoFlo, with a typical summer weather pattern continuing throughout much of the long term. Daytime heating and sea breezes will act as the main drivers of daily afternoon convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should first develop around the East Coast Metro areas during the late morning/early afternoon hours, then increasing in coverage and shifting west into interior and Gulf Coast areas during the late afternoon/early evening hours. The biggest cells could produce localized flooding as outflow boundaries interact and may result in slow-moving or even stationary storms. Temperatures should remain around or slightly warmer than normals, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices reaching triple digits. Overnight lows should remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycles. Winds light/vrb overnight BCMG ESE around 5-10 kt. SHRA/TSRA becomes SCT/NMRS at times today, particularly near/over APF. Short-fused TEMPOs may be needed. Gulf sea-breeze also may cause wind shift at APF around 16-18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters through the weekend. This flow may turn more southeasterly heading into the early to middle portion of next week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters during this time frame. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 89 80 / 80 50 70 40 West Kendall 88 75 90 77 / 80 50 70 40 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 79 / 80 50 70 40 Homestead 88 77 88 79 / 80 60 70 40 Fort Lauderdale 87 77 88 80 / 80 50 70 40 N Ft Lauderdale 88 78 89 80 / 80 50 70 40 Pembroke Pines 90 77 91 80 / 80 50 70 40 West Palm Beach 89 77 90 79 / 80 40 70 40 Boca Raton 89 77 90 80 / 80 50 70 40 Naples 90 76 90 77 / 80 50 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...SRB