743
FXUS64 KMEG 291514
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1014 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Temperatures across the Mid-South are currently in the mid to
upper 80s with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 70s under
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Heat index values range from
the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Dangerous heat index values
greater than 105 are expected across the entire Mid-South, with
areas along and west of the Mississippi River exceeding 110
degrees. A Heat Advisory and an Excessive Heat Warning will be in
effect from 11 am this morning through 8 pm this evening. The
current forecast appears to be on track with no changes planned or
needed.

JPR

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Excessive heat will continue to plague the Mid-South today with
much of the area seeing afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
90s. Fortunately, relief from the heat is anticipated on Sunday
and Monday as a cold front sags into the region. Temperatures will
rebound to the mid 90s on Tuesday and last through midweek before
additional rain chances return late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Hot and muggy conditions will persist today as a 598 dam ridge
remains parked over the ArkLaTex. Expect dewpoints to climb to the
mid and upper 70s by midday, resulting in heat index values
greater than 105F areawide. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat
Warning will go into effect at 11AM for the entire Mid-South, with
areas along and west of the Mississippi River included in the
Excessive Heat Warning.

The good news: cooler temperatures are on the way as a cold front
sags across Missouri today. Ahead of this front, showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over central Missouri and
push into the Mid-South this evening. Overall, severe weather
chances at this time look relatively low due to timing of storms
corresponding with a developing nocturnal inversion. A brief one
or two hour window of severe storms capable of damaging winds may
materialize around sunset, but expect storms to dissipate as they
approach the I-40 corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms
may develop Sunday afternoon as the aforementioned front pushes
into north Mississippi.

A warm and dry spell will resume Monday with additional heat
headlines likely by Tuesday as temperatures rise to the mid and
upper 90s. The next best chance of rain looks to be late Thursday
into Friday as a shortwave trough impacts the Mid-South. Greater
rain chances are forecast for Friday, so hopefully things stay
dry for the 4th of July Holiday. Stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Predominately VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites. Biggest
question will be SHRA/TSRA chances with a frontal boundary
overnight. Still a lot of uncertainty, so have only included
mention for JBR for this TAF cycle, but may be needed for MKL/MEM
in a later forecast. Winds will remain generally from the S/SW
throughout the TAF period, becoming N near the end of the current
TAF period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-
     007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001-
     002-019-020-048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ003-004-021-022-
     052>055-090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA