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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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431 FXUS64 KMEG 292046 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 346 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Excessive heat will continue into Sunday for portions of the Mid- South until a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances. Hot conditions return to the region on Tuesday and will last through at least Friday when another cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South have risen into the mid 90s with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 70s, as mid-level ridging has amplified over the region. This has yielded heat index values have ranged between 105 to 115 degrees today. As dewpoint values are a bit higher than originally anticipated, have elected extended the heat advisory and excessive heat warning until 9 pm CDT to account for this trend. The remainder of the current forecast thinking remains similar the prior forecast in that a cold front, associated with a belt of mid-level troughing, will advance toward the Mid-South this evening. Ahead of this front, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across portions of southeastern Missouri, eventually moving into the Missouri bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. The latest CAM guidance has been quite variable with respect to the longevity and intensity of this activity which suggests low confidence in the severe thunderstorm impacts tonight. Even so, strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible with the main threats of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall. The heat will continue across portions of northern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas and southwestern Tennessee tomorrow, as heat index values are expected to range between 105 to over 110 degrees. As such, an Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for the MS Delta region with a Heat Advisory for remainder of northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee starting at 15z tomorrow. CAM guidance appears to redevelop convection ahead of the surface cold front tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings depict moderate to strong instability, weak shear, and abnormally high PWAT values (greater than 2 inches). Given these variables, the potential exists for water loaded downdrafts with afternoon storm development (e.g. wet microbursts). Cooler temperatures are forecast for areas behind the front on Sunday and Monday. As mid-level ridging strengthens over the Mid-South, hot and dry conditions are anticipated with the possible return of heat headlines starting Tuesday. This pattern looks to continue through Friday when mid-level troughing amplifies over the Midwest bringing a cold front, cooler temperatures, and increasing precipitation chances to the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. -SHRA/TSRA is possible between 03-06Z at JBR, as convection forms along the approaching cold front. However, thunder was not added at MEM and MKL overnight due to uncertainty with timing and strength. VCTS is possible at MEM Sunday afternoon as a frontal passage approaches. Winds will veer north with the frontal passage Sunday. ACH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ036-048-049. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ058. MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113- 115. MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001- 007-008-010>012-020. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>006-009- 013>017-023-024. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ007- 008-010>012-020>022. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009- 013>017-021>024. TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001- 002-019-020-048>051-088-089. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ049-050- 052>055-088>092. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ003-004-021-022- 052>055-090>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...ACH