089
FXUS64 KMEG 011628
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Weather conditions are much more pleasant across the Mid-South
today as drier air and cooler temperatures have settled over the
region behind yesterday`s cold front. Current temperatures range
from the upper 70s to the mid 80s with dewpoints in the 60s,
resulting in heat indices approximately 20-25 degrees cooler than
at this time yesterday. There are some mid-level clouds streaming
southeast across the Ozarks, but they continue to erode as they
approach I-40 and run into the subsidence provided by the
subtropical ridge. No noteworthy changes were made to the previous
forecast other than to tweak dewpoints down just slightly this
afternoon in anticipation of vertical mixing.

MJ

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Conditions today will be tolerable as dry air pushes into the
Mid-South. Heat headlines will likely not be needed until
Wednesday, when an upper level trough orients over the region.
Rain chances return Wednesday with daily rounds of showers and
storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A break from hot and muggy conditions will be evident today as
dry air filters into the Mid-South behind a cold front. Afternoon
temperatures will range from the low 80s to low 90s, providing the
area with some much needed relief. Unfortunately, these
conditions will not last long as southerly winds return on
Tuesday.

By Wednesday, a 596 dam ridge will center over the Mid-South,
allowing afternoon temperatures to reach the mid 90s. This,
combined with dewpoints in the 70s, may necessitate heat headlines
both Wednesday and Thursday. However, long term guidance continues
to support several shortwaves impacting the Mid-South beginning
late Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, rain chances begin to
increase with areas north of I-40 possessing the greatest
probabilities for rainfall. Any precipitation that does occur
Wednesday or Thursday will be scattered in nature, so don`t
anticipate an areawide washout for the July 4th Holiday.

Greater chances for widespread rainfall exist Friday and Saturday
as a cold front approaches the region. Most recent LREF guidance
paints only a 10-20% chance of severe weather during this time.
However, precipitable water values near the 90th percentile may
produce a flooding threat as storms move through the region.
Otherwise, expect slightly cooler temperatures this weekend
behind the aforementioned front.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions continue throughout the TAF period. Northeast
winds around 10kts through much of the day. Around to after 00Z,
winds will begin to calm through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA