Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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916 FXUS64 KMEG 282033 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Hot conditions will continue through Saturday as ridging continues to amplify over the Mid-South. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances to the region starting Saturday, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. Hot and dry conditions resume on Tuesday and look to persist through the latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Latest water vapor analysis shows mid-level heights continue to rise, as mid-level ridging amplifies over the region. Today`s temperatures are expected to warm into the low 90s with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This has yielded heat index values near or above 100 degrees area wide today. Heat index values across portions of the MS delta are a bit warmer near 105 degrees, where a heat advisory remains in effect until 8pm CDT. Temperatures on Saturday will be even hotter, as a mid-level heights continue to build. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for areas in the MS Delta and west of the river, with a Heat Advisory in effect elsewhere across the Mid-South. Dangerously hot temperatures greater than 105 degrees will be common in the advisory area with temperatures greater than 110 degrees in areas under the Excessive Heat Warning. Therefore, be sure to know the signs of heat related illness and limit your time outdoors. Some breakdown of expansive ridging looks to occur starting late Saturday, as a mid-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest. A cold front associated with this trough will move toward the Mid- South on Saturday night. Precipitation chances will increase ahead of this front with the possibility for some strong to severe storms on Saturday night. Forecast soundings from CAM guidance depicts elevated instability (~1500+ J/kg), rooted near 850mb that will be coupled with around 30-40 knots of effective shear, suggesting the potential for damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. Precipitation chances will continue across the Mid-South on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday and Monday, though some areas across north Mississippi may still see temperatures approaching the mid 90s. Temperatures will quickly rebound on Tuesday with possible heat headlines across portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Wednesday and Thursday look even hotter with the potential for more widespread heat headlines, though some of this may be mitigated by increasing precipitation chances. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions and relatively light winds will persist through most of the TAF period. Probabilistic guidance suggest the potential for a temporary low stratus deck around sunrise at TUP. Confidence is too low to include at this time. ACH/CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026-027-035-048-049-058. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ028-036. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115. MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ007-010>012-020. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>006-008- 009-013>017-021>024. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020. TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...CJC