Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 290651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290651
NEZ000-290845-
Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...parts of southwestern and south central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 290651Z - 290845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell may continue to pose a risk
for large hail (up to 2+ inches in diameter) and potentially
damaging wind gusts across and east-southeast of the Lexington
vicinity through 2 to 3 AM CDT. Thereafter, it seems probable that
it will weaken. Trends are being monitored, but a severe weather
watch is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for recent intense, isolated supercell
development to the east southeast of North Platte is unclear. It
appears focused within a corridor of higher boundary-layer moisture
content supportive of sizable CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, along baroclinic
zone where low-level warm advection may have become enhanced. Aided
by strong shear, radar data suggests that this cell has been
producing severe hail, and this east-southeastward propagating cell
may eventually pose a risk for locally strong surface gusts if it is
maintained long enough. However, based on the Rapid Refresh, the
developing frontal zone is in the process of surging southward at a
pace that may tend to undercut the storm and contribute to
stabilizing trends within the next couple of hours.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40960011 40999960 40869855 40479888 40610038 40760037
40960011