Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 291815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291814
MIZ000-WIZ000-291945-
Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...eastern Upper Peninsula into northern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291814Z - 291945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds of 40-60
mph and a couple instances of hail to near 1 inch diameter through
the afternoon. A watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low/triple point across the eastern U.P into northern Lower
MI through the afternoon. A moist airmass with surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s F and heating into the mid/upper 70s is contributing
to weak destabilization amid strong vertical shear. Midlevel lapse
rates will remain poor, but sufficient instability and shear may
support a few briefly strong/severe cells capable of mainly gusty
winds and marginally severe hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
expected.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 45218755 46148725 46718656 46848509 46288427 45318381
44518428 43948524 44058613 44138661 45218755