Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 292058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292057
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-292300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...northern/eastern Oklahoma...southeastern
Kansas...western Missouri...northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292057Z - 292300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and isolated large
hail possible through late afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...A southward drifting cold front extending from western
Oklahoma northward into Kansas and Missouri will be the focus for
thunderstorm development through the late afternoon and evening.
Daytime heating has led to temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s and
MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg across much of north-central Oklahoma into
southern Kansas. In this region, clusters of towering cu can be
observed. Consensus from CAM guidance suggests convective initiation
occurring sometime between 21-00z along and near the cold front.
Storm mode is expected to be cellular to small clusters, spreading
east-southeastward through the evening. Deep layer shear is
generally weak, with the best shear on the cool side of the
boundary. This will support damaging wind as the main threat, though
isolated hail will be possible. Trends will be monitored for watch
potential late this afternoon/evening.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36209523 36109650 36179797 36319813 36589819 36979781
38109504 38249352 37809264 37329229 36659273 36209418
36209523