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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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455 ACUS11 KWNS 301435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301434 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-301630- Mesoscale Discussion 1488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0934 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...Maine and New Hampshire Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 301434Z - 301630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase into early afternoon. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have already developed this morning across portions of southern Quebec ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Downstream from this activity, modest/gradual destabilization is occurring across NH/ME where heating is occurring amid scattered/broken clouds. Stronger heating and richer boundary-layer moisture will likely remain focused across parts of NH into western/coastal ME. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear will remain in place over the area and instability will be sufficient for bands/clusters of strong/severe storms into the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low level lapse rates amid 45+ kt effective shear by early afternoon, supporting damaging wind potential. Straight, elongated hodographs also suggest hail may be possible with any more discrete storm mode. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the area within the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... LAT...LON 46936760 45146690 44086809 43087095 43317167 43677184 45357128 47006981 47196947 47226831 46936760