486
ACUS11 KWNS 011917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011916
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-012115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...Far Southeastern WY...NE
Panhandle...Western/Central SD...Central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 011916Z - 012115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to
increase over the next few hours from the central Dakotas into the
Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Some severe
thunderstorms capable of 1 to 1.75" hail and gusts from 60 to 70 mph
are possible.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a broad shortwave trough
progressing eastward across the northern Rockies/northern High
Plains. The airmass downstream from the NE Panhandle into the
central Dakotas continues to destabilize amid filtered daytime
heating and ample low-level moisture. Recent surface observations
show upper 60s dewpoints extending northward in the vicinity of a
pre-frontal trough from far southeast WY into central ND.
Expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development to
occur over the next few hours ahead of the approaching shortwave,
both along the cold front and pre-frontal trough. A predominately
linear mode is anticipated along the front, but a few supercells are
possible farther east along the lee trough where the buoyancy is
greater and the vertical shear vector is a bit more
southwesterly/westerly. Large hail around 1.75" is the primary
threat with any more cellular development. Gusts from 60 to 70 mph
will be the primary threat with the more linear storms. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to address this severe
potential.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   41570443 44910407 47630129 47109926 41580127 41570443