Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 012245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012244
NDZ000-SDZ000-020015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024
Areas affected...Central North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...
Valid 012244Z - 020015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
continues.
SUMMARY...Gusty winds and hail are possible with convection this
evening.
DISCUSSION...Strongest mid-level height falls are spreading across
the northern High Plains this evening in response to upstream
short-wave trough. Extensive cloudiness has limited surface heating
across much of ND, and low-level lapse rates are not particularly
steep. Even so, a narrow corridor of pre-frontal buoyancy extends
across south-central into central ND where MLCAPE values are near
1000 J/kg. Convection should continue to congeal along/ahead of the
wind shift, but in the absence of meaningful supercell development,
hail should generally remain below 1.5 inches. Gusty winds may be
the primary concern, and generally less than 50kt.
..Darrow.. 07/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45930049 46890045 47770144 47950022 47329928 46039957
45930049