290
ACUS11 KWNS 042238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042237
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...far
southern Illinois...far western Kentucky...and far northwestern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 042237Z - 042330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms damaging gusts and maybe some
marginally severe hail are possible across portions of southern
Missouri, northern Arkansas, far southern Illinois, far western
Kentucky, and far northwestern Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a weak cold front
across portions of southern Missouri and southern Illinois and along
a surface pressure trough across portions of northeastern Arkansas.
These storms are along the southern periphery of the better
mid-level flow, with 30-35 kts of effective bulk shear in the
environment, enough for multicells or weak supercells. Short-term
RAP forecast thermodynamic profiles also show somewhat steep
low-level lapse rates and modestly high precipitable water values,
which may result in wet microbursts with a few damaging gusts. Due
to straight hodographs with weak low-level shear and modest
deep-layer shear with deep CAPE profiles, some marginally severe
hail may occur with the stronger storms, despite poor mid-level
lapse rates. Clustering of storms may be limited given sparse
convective coverage, which may limit the wind damage potential, and
storms may wane near sunset.

..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37369317 37059412 36699456 36049449 35369422 35159212
            35089083 35438972 35718918 36048867 36688836 37368834
            37598871 37718934 37369317