021
FXUS64 KMAF 030525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The mid-level ridge over the southern CONUS will weaken over the
Southern Great Plains and slide eastward. This will result in warmer
temperatures today, with most places warmer than yesterday and
seeing triple digits aside from higher elevations, around 5 to 10
degrees above normal for early July. However, rain chances also
increase today as increasing southwesterly southwesterly mid-level
flow and weakening large-scale subsidence overspread the region
as the ridge moves east. VIS SAT shows high clouds streaming in
from the southwest early this afternoon, with denser clouds
present over northern Eddy and Lea Counties. We can continue
expect a mix of sun and high clouds outside of showers and storms
as this upper level moisture continues to move in. Isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms are likely over western higher
elevations and adjacent plains this afternoon into early tonight.
With loss of daytime heating, storms should weaken, but the
nocturnal low-level jet will maintain gusty south-southeast winds
over much of the area into Wednesday morning. Lows tonight fall
into the 70s and above aside from higher elevations and parts of
Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Wednesday will be similar to
today in terms of temperatures, but with rain chances developing
farther east into the Permian Basin. Wednesday night will again
feature above normal temperatures with decreasing rain chances
with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Thursday, the upper ridge will be bisected, w/one half centered off
the west coast near the Bay Area, and the other half over the Gulf
Coast states, leaving Texas under a col of sorts.  Under this
scenario, a downward trend in thicknesses/temperatures continues.
However, Thursday will be the warmest day in the extended, as highs
come in ~ 6-8 F above normal.  The break in the ridge will allow
convection to develop north across the border during the afternoon
and overnight, combining with upslope flow for excellent chances
over the Davis Mountains and areas north and south.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will be digging towards the Great Lakes
area, and is forecast to drop a cold front into the area Thursday
night and Friday.  At 12Z Friday, the NAM places the front just
north of the CWA, and fropa at KMAF at around noon.  Ahead of this
feature, 60+F surface dewpoints are forecast beyond our western
border, and PWATs Thursday night at KMAF increase to 1.62" on the
NAM...above the daily max of 1.52" and mean of 0.95" and around 2.5
std devs above normal.  Despite the juicy parameters, models are
rather stingy on QPF, but we`ll take what we can get, as always.
Thicknesses plunge w/the arrival of the front, and cloud
cover/precipitation will result in highs below normal for much of
the area.  Best chances for rain look to be later Friday night as
the cold front settles farther into the CWA.

Saturday, and upper trough is forecast to dig into the region
between the ridges.  Saturday looks to be ridiculously cool for this
time of year, and the coldest day this forecast as highs top out
near or 2-3 F below normal.  Models still portend a relatively
decent chance of convection along the old frontal boundary along and
south of I-10.

Sunday, the trough ejects east, and a warming trend sets in,
bringing temperatures Sunday through Tuesday back up to near- to a
couple of degrees above normal.  The col is forecast to persist, so
the heat will remain at bay for now.  Convection will go back to
diurnally-driven activity in the Davis Mountains each day.

The one wild card in the extended is Hurricane Beryl.  The GFS and
CMC are in agreement (although not in timing) in bringing it up
through central Texas through the col (Beryl under the saddle?) next
week, whereas the ECMWF keeps it south of the border.  As it stands
at the moment, none of the solutions mean a hill of beans for West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as we`ll be on the subsident side of
the system.  Should the track change between now and then, this will
need to be re-evaluated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Winds remain
generally southeasterly and elevated but should weaken through the
early morning. Widely scattered thunderstorms are again possible
during the afternoon near CNM and HOB but confidence is too low
on any direct impacts for inclusion in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77 103  77  91 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                 77 101  75  92 /  30  20  30  50
Dryden                   75 100  76  97 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Stockton            75 102  75  95 /  10  20  10  50
Guadalupe Pass           72  92  70  85 /  40  40  30  50
Hobbs                    74 100  72  89 /  20  10  30  40
Marfa                    67  96  66  90 /  30  70  40  60
Midland Intl Airport     76 101  77  91 /  10  10  20  40
Odessa                   77 101  77  91 /  10  10  20  40
Wink                     78 105  78  94 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91