157
FXUS64 KMAF 051705
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Convection from last evening has caused an MCV to develop over the
Permian Basin that is in turn causing a small area of thunderstorms
near Midland/Odessa at the present time. This feature should
continue to sag south taking the storms with it until they dissipate
later this morning.

A trough moving across the northern Great Plains is pushing a cold
front through the area this morning that will bring cooler
temperatures today. Highs are only expected to reach the lower 90s
for many locations, a welcome respite from the triple digit heat
seen the past several days. Lift associated with the front should
cause more showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon
adding to light to modest rainfall totals seen yesterday. The
threat of severe weather will be minimal, but if there are any
concerns then strong winds and heavy rain will be the threats to
watch for.

Return flow begins Saturday as surface high pressure slides east
and southeasterly winds resume. The trajectory of the air is
recirculating moderate temperatures from East Texas so no warming is
expected with another day of relatively pleasant temps for this time
of year. In addition, there will be enough moisture remaining that
there will be a chance for isolated to widely scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the Davis and Guadalupe
mountains where orographic lift will aid in storm development.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

As we move into the beginning of next week, we remain underneath
somewhat weak forcing but general long-wave troughing persists
across the north-central part of the lower 48. However, Sunday looks
to be both the quietest day of the long term weather-wise with the
front responsible for our showers/storms this weekend lifting away.
Without much in the likes of clouds/storms, Sunday ends up being the
hottest day of the week, with many spots returning above the century
mark.

The front surges back southward on Monday, setting the stage for a
cool and somewhat wet stretch of days maintained by persistent
easterly upslope flow. The front looks to stall and linger in the
area for a few days, providing a chance to focus isolated to
scattered storm development each afternoon. Throwing some additional
moisture and storm chances in the mix would be the remnants of
Beryl. This remains highly uncertain path and how far west the storm
is able to make it into Texas. Regardless, direct impacts will
surely not be felt in our neck of the woods, but added moisture from
the storm`s remnants could sneak our way. Now whether or not
appreciable rain falls on your doorstep this week, the more certain
fact is that we will avoid the high heat each afternoon. High
temperatures only reach the low 90s for many spots with 80s in the
higher elevations through the end of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except in areas of
direct convection. A cold front is currently working its way
through the region, resulting in northeasterly flow. These winds
will veer back to return flow by late Saturday morning, but remain
light due to the absence of a LLJ overnight. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases 4.5-7 kft
AGL, and another near the end of the forecast period, w/bases ~4.5
kft AGL. Convection will be possible again all terminals, but
Southeast New Mexico looks to have the best chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  68  92  72 /  40  40  40   0
Carlsbad                 93  69  91  71 /  50  60  30  10
Dryden                   98  74  97  73 /  10  20  20   0
Fort Stockton            97  72  94  74 /  40  40  30   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  63  85  69 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                    89  65  89  69 /  50  50  40  10
Marfa                    91  62  90  62 /  50  40  50  10
Midland Intl Airport     92  70  91  72 /  40  40  30  10
Odessa                   92  70  91  73 /  40  40  30  10
Wink                     95  72  96  74 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44