Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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655 FXUS64 KMAF 280543 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered from northern Sonora to West Texas, portending another warm day for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. However, sporadic mid/high cloud may play hob w/afternoon temperatures, knocking a degree or two off highs. CAMs suggest convective chances will be a struggle this afternoon/evening, as instability looks tepid. Tonight, a 35+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and will combine with partly cloudy skies to retard radiational cooling, once again keeping overnight lows unseasonably warm. Friday, the ridge shifts slightly east, and thicknesses increase, adding a couple of degrees to today`s highs and yielding the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 10 F above normal. If there`s a day this forecast that warrants Heat Advisories, this is it. As such, we`ve issued Heat Advisories for mainly mountains and river valleys. The mid shift can add or subtract as necessary. W/the slight shifting of the ridge to the east, convective chances over the higher terrain will be a little higher than today`s, but not by much. Friday night, what little convection there is will diminish w/loss of daytime heating. A stronger, 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop, and will once again combine w/cloud cover for another uncomfortable night of temperatures ~ 10 F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The short of the long term forecast is that a typical summer pattern continues to be expected. Upper level ridging remains this weekend and into next week over Texas and much of the Southern US. This will keep temperatures a few degrees above normal in the upper 90s to low 100s for most through the extended. Continued southerly to southeasterly flow in the low levels will keep moisture extending across the region. Rain chances will be best to the west over the higher terrain each afternoon and early evening. Long range guidance continues to show a monsoon season setup with a ridge moving over the Four Corners region late next week. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds generally stay steady out the south-southeast. Common gusts linger at FST through the overnight with the LLJ and gusts develop at MAF for the afternoon hours. A stay shower or two is possible near all terminals in the afternoon hours but coverage is going to be way too low to mention in TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 105 78 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 104 77 102 75 / 20 10 20 10 Dryden 102 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 105 76 100 75 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 95 75 93 70 / 30 20 30 10 Hobbs 103 74 100 72 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 98 66 98 65 / 30 20 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 104 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 104 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 107 78 104 77 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Mitchell-Pecos-Scurry-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...16