Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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244 FXUS64 KMAF 282106 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 406 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A rather pedestrian forecast continues under the influence of an upper ridge elongated W-E and and centered over the great state of Texas this afternoon. Unfortunately for those who enjoy the heat, today will be the last really warm day this forecast, as highs plateau ~ 10 F above normal this afternoon. As was the case yesterday, instability this afternoon looks minimal, and CAMs struggle to develop convection over the higher terrain. Regardless, should anything develop, it will quickly diminish this evening w/loss of daytime heating. A ~40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and will combine w/a few clouds to yield another unseasonably warm night with overnight minimums 10-12 F above normal. Saturday, the ridge shifts east, taking the focus off West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Thicknesses will decrease, shaving a couple of degrees off today`s highs. A heat advisory or two may still be warranted, but we`ll leave this up to the mid shift, as current forecast highs are right on the fence. CAMs once again are not very enthusiastic in developing convection Saturday afternoon, keeping better chances west and out from under the ridge. Another LLJ develops Saturday night, but temperatures may come in a couple of degrees cooler than tonight simply because Saturday is not expected to be as warm as today. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Little change to the long term forecast as a fairly normal summer pattern remains for this weekend and into next week. Upper level ridging will keep the area mostly dry except to the west over the higher elevations. Lingering low level moisture, weakness in ridging to the west, and mountains will allow for showers and storms to develop each afternoon and early evening. Rain amounts will be low overall outside of very isolated spots. Highs each day reach into the upper 90s to low 100s for most. Lows settle just above normal thanks to persistent southeasterly flow overnight. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. A cu field has developed this afternoon, w/bases 9-11 kft AGL, and forecast soundings develop a lesser one near the end of the forecast period, w/bases 5-9 kft AGL. Winds will stay elevated overnight due to a 40 kt LLJ. Chances of convection are slim-to- none. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 78 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 77 103 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 76 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 77 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 75 94 69 90 / 20 20 10 20 Hobbs 74 100 73 97 / 10 10 10 0 Marfa 67 98 64 94 / 20 20 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 77 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 78 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 79 103 77 100 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Borden- Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Mitchell-Pecos- Scurry-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44