298
FXUS64 KMAF 021945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The mid-level ridge over the southern CONUS will weaken over the
Southern Great Plains and slide eastward. This will result in warmer
tmperatures today, with most places warmer than yesterday and seeing
triple digits aside from higher elevations, around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal for early July. However, rain chances also increase
today as increasing southwesterly southwesterly mid-level flow and
weakening large-scale subsidence overspread the region as the ridge
moves east. VIS SAT shows high clouds streaming in from the
southwest early this afternoon, with denser clouds present over
northern Eddy and Lea Counties. We can continue expect a mix of sun
and high clouds outside of showers and storms as this upper level
moisture continues to move in. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and storms are likely over western higher elevations and adjacent
plains this afternoon into early tonight. With loss of daytime
heating, storms should weaken, but the nocturnal low-level jet will
maintain gusty south-southeast winds over much of the area into
Wednesday morning. Lows tonight fall into the 70s and above aside
from higher elevations and parts of Marfa Plateau into lower Trans
Pecos. Wednesday will be similar to today in terms of temperatures,
but with rain chances developing farther east into the Permian
Basin. Wednesday night will again feature above normal temperatures
with decreasing rain chances with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Thursday, the upper ridge will be bisected, w/one half centered off
the west coast near the Bay Area, and the other half over the Gulf
Coast states, leaving Texas under a col of sorts.  Under this
scenario, a downward trend in thicknesses/temperatures continues.
However, Thursday will be the warmest day in the extended, as highs
come in ~ 6-8 F above normal.  The break in the ridge will allow
convection to develop north across the border during the afternoon
and overnight, combining with upslope flow for excellent chances
over the Davis Mountains and areas north and south.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will be digging towards the Great Lakes
area, and is forecast to drop a cold front into the area Thursday
night and Friday.  At 12Z Friday, the NAM places the front just
north of the CWA, and fropa at KMAF at around noon.  Ahead of this
feature, 60+F surface dewpoints are forecast beyond our western
border, and PWATs Thursday night at KMAF increase to 1.62" on the
NAM...above the daily max of 1.52" and mean of 0.95" and around 2.5
std devs above normal.  Despite the juicy parameters, models are
rather stingy on QPF, but we`ll take what we can get, as always.
Thicknesses plunge w/the arrival of the front, and cloud
cover/precipitation will result in highs below normal for much of
the area.  Best chances for rain look to be later Friday night as
the cold front settles farther into the CWA.

Saturday, and upper trough is forecast to dig into the region
between the ridges.  Saturday looks to be ridiculously cool for this
time of year, and the coldest day this forecast as highs top out
near or 2-3 F below normal.  Models still portend a relatively
decent chance of convection along the old frontal boundary along and
south of I-10.

Sunday, the trough ejects east, and a warming trend sets in,
bringing temperatures Sunday through Tuesday back up to near- to a
couple of degrees above normal.  The col is forecast to persist, so
the heat will remain at bay for now.  Convection will go back to
diurnally-driven activity in the Davis Mountains each day.

The one wild card in the extended is Hurricane Beryl.  The GFS and
CMC are in agreement (although not in timing) in bringing it up
through central Texas through the col (Beryl under the saddle?) next
week, whereas the ECMWF keeps it south of the border.  As it stands
at the moment, none of the solutions mean a hill of beans for West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as we`ll be on the subsident side of
the system.  Should the track change between now and then, this will
need to be re-evaluated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs expected throughout TAF period outside of
showers and storms, MVFR or lower CIGs and VIS in any heavier
showers. Left out mention of showers and storms at terminals due
to uncertainty in coverage, but CNM and HOB could see showers and
storms between 18Z today and 06Z Wednesday. Gusty southeast winds
likely at terminals between 02Z and 10Z Wednesday. Rain chances
again increase by end of period for terminals in SE NM plains and
farther east for PEQ, INK, and possibly MAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 104  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 78 101  77 101 /  20  40  30  20
Dryden                   75 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76 103  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           74  93  72  92 /  30  60  40  40
Hobbs                    74 101  74 100 /  20  30  20  10
Marfa                    67  98  67  96 /  20  50  30  70
Midland Intl Airport     76 101  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   77 102  77 101 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     79 106  78 105 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...94