Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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835 FXUS64 KMAF 301126 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The stagnant pattern we`ve observed for the last several days persists through the beginning of the week with persistent upper ridging spanning from northern Mexico through the Gulf Coast. High temperatures both this afternoon and Monday afternoon are nearly identical, topping out in the mid to upper 90s for most with triple digits limited to the Pecos/Rio Grande River valleys and the western Low Rolling Plains. A modest LLJ this morning (and again tonight) keeps breezy winds in place and holds low temperatures into the mid to upper 70s. A few diurnally-driven storms are expected in and around the Davis Mountains through the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. Synoptic subsidence ticks up a bit tomorrow with the ridge becoming stronger and more centered over the ArkLaTex. With this, no storm chances are expected at any point on Monday. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The beginning through middle part of the new week remains much the same as its been. Mid-level ridging remains dominant as its center meanders around the southern Great Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures remain hot each afternoon as a result with scorching 90s and 100s for the vast majority of locations. The low- level jet keeps it warm through the night as temperatures struggle to cool into the 70s each morning. Rain chances during this period will be confined to the western higher elevations where diurnal convection remains possible. On the bright side, the signs of a much needed change are anticipated by the end of the week into next weekend. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement that the broad mid-level ridge across the CONUS begins to weaken across the southern Great Plains, becoming split across the Southwest and Southeast U.S. This provides northwesterly upper-level flow across the area, which should allow for troughs or weak disturbances to sink southeast into portions of the southern Great Plains. In doing so, temperatures should cool more into the upper 80s to mid 90s for most with more substantial and widespread rain chances across the entire area. While the best rain chances should remain across the favored higher elevations, at least a low (10-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms may materialize across the Permian basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Let`s just hope we can catch a break from the hot and dry weather, at least for a short while. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions continue for all terminals. Winds remain southeasterly with afternoon gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 74 99 75 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 96 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 69 93 72 / 10 10 10 10 Hobbs 97 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 94 62 93 63 / 10 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 101 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...91