077
FXUS64 KLZK 291734
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

After a few days of relatively cooler condns, hazardous heat is set
to resume acrs the FA this aftn w/ fcst temps reaching the mid to
upper 90s at most locations. Heat index values area-wide are progged
to exceed 105F to 110F, necessitating area-wide heat headlines, w/
most of the state under either a heat advisory, or excessive heat
warning this aftn. Precip chcs this aftn should stay limited to far
Nrn AR, w/ only diurnal convective activity expected.

Sun, another synoptic cdfrnt is progged to approach the region, and
incrsg covg/magnitude of PoPs are expected fm Nrn AR towards
Cntrl to Srn AR fm Sun mrng to the early aftn hrs. Covg of rain
and asctd cloud cover, along w/ residual outflow and approaching
Nrly sfc winds wl lkly keep temps and heat index values below
headline levels, at least for Nrn AR to potentially Cntrl AR. Heat
headlines may still be necessary acrs Srn AR, depending on the
timing and onset of approaching precip/convective complexes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

MONDAY/TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge will position over
Oklahoma and Arkansas. At the sfc, on Monday, the cold front that
moved through the state on Sunday is parked across northern
Louisiana allowing for the possibility of some elevated POPs
across southern Arkansas in the form of showers and a possible
isolated thunderstorm. Into the day on Tuesday, a warm front will
lift northeastward back across the state allowing for hot and
moist conditions to take hold across the state with nil chances
for rainfall.

Expect low rain and isolated thunderstorm chances across southern
Arkansas on Monday with chances statewide for any precipitation
becoming zero on Tuesday. Temperatures on Monday in terms of lows
and highs across the state will be near average as a slightly drier
and cooler airmass will be in place on Monday. Temperatures on
Tuesday will rebound significantly throughout the day as low
temperatures will be near normal, but high temperatures will be 5 to
10 degrees above normal as a warm front will traverse the state and
allow hot temperatures to return across the CWA.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (Independence Day)/FRIDAY:

In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge that was fixated directly
over Oklahoma and Arkansas begins to elongate throughout the period
from over the Southern Plains region extending eastward over the Mid-
South and into the Southeastern region of the CONUS. A longwave trof
passes just north of the state from Thursday into Friday with the
northern stream of upper lvl activity. At the sfc, a frontal
boundary will be positioned just north of the CWA across Missouri
throughout the period. The combination of the features of the front
and the sfc high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will usher in
plenty of moisture that will allow some low opportunities of some
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern CWA on
Wednesday and Thursday before transitioning into most of the CWA by
Friday.

Expect low chances of showers and thunderstorms to develop across
northern and eventually most of the CWA to finish out the long-term
forecast period as a few isolated parcels that reach their
convective temperature will be likely over this period, but provide
an extremely isolated area of shower and thunderstorm potential
where they do form during the afternoon timeframe (hottest portion
of the day).

The mention of any precipitation may seem concerning for many going
into Thursday and Independence Day; however while it is critical to
stay vigilant to any showers and storms that do form, the more
concerning threat will be the heat as heat index values will be
between 105 and in excess of 110 across many locations. Equally
concerning will be the lack of relief overnight as many locations
across the state will only fall into the mid to upper 70s and
possibly not fall out of the lower 80s across metro areas for
several nights/early mornings. It will be a must to practice heat
safety by remaining hydrated and taking breaks out of the heat in a
location with sufficient air conditioning as we will be in a period
of low and high temperatures both 8 to 10 degrees above normal to
close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are generally expected through the valid forecast
period. The only exceptions are northern TAF sites may see some
flight category restrictions due to scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. A weak frontal
boundary is also expected to slide south and stall out across
either central or southern Arkansas. Wherever this boundary stalls
out, some MVFR CIGs are possible tomorrow morning.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  88  66  86 /  30  40   0   0
Camden AR         77  96  73  93 /  10  40  10  20
Harrison AR       71  85  66  87 /  40  50  10  10
Hot Springs AR    77  94  72  91 /  10  50  10  10
Little Rock   AR  79  93  73  90 /  10  50  10  10
Monticello AR     79  95  74  91 /  10  50  10  20
Mount Ida AR      75  93  70  90 /  10  50  10  10
Mountain Home AR  72  85  66  85 /  40  40   0  10
Newport AR        75  88  68  86 /  30  40   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     78  93  73  90 /  10  50  10  10
Russellville AR   77  92  72  90 /  20  60  10  10
Searcy AR         76  91  69  88 /  20  50  10  10
Stuttgart AR      78  91  72  88 /  10  50  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004-005-014-024-
103-112-113-123-203-212-213-221>223-313.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ006>008-015>017-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-
122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...66