502
FXUS64 KLZK 041138
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Temperatures across AR on this 4th of July morning ranged from the
mid 70s to lower 80s. These warm readings will set the stage for
another dangerously hot and humid afternoon across the region.

Looking at the larger scale pattern, H500 ridging was nearly
centered overtop the Srn MS Valley. Closer to the surface, high
pressure was located along the Srn Appalachians Mtns with low
pressure near the TX and OK Panhandles. Between these surface
features, winds will be out of the S and SW at around 10 to 15 mph
locally. Given the antecedent starting point in temperatures this
morning, the heat will build in quickly with readings reaching the
mid 90s to near 100 degrees this afternoon. Accounting for high
humidity already in place, heat index values are expected to
climb above 110 degrees across the Excessive Heat Warning area and
range from 105 to 110 degrees across the Heat Advisory area.
These warnings and advisories cover the entire state thus no
relief to be found, at least through the late afternoon hours.
Perhaps a stray afternoon shower will bring relief to some, but
these should prove to be far and few between.

By this evening, a cold front will approach NWrn AR from the
plains states with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
developing near this boundary. This activity will affect the
aforementioned locations near dark to the overnight period
tonight. While the threat for organized severe weather is low, an
isolated strong to severe storm is possible. Damaging winds and
marginally large hail would be primary concerns. Those
participating in firework activities should pay close attention to
changing weather conditions over far Wrn AR, into NWrn/Nrn AR.

Overnight into Friday, the cold front will push further into AR
with precipitation advancing SEwrd. PoPs will ramp up over Cntrl
AR as showers and thunderstorms move across the state. This
activity will push SEwrd through the day on Friday across Srn
sections of the state. In the wake of the boundary, the cold
front will switch surface winds back to the N and NE thus dry air
advection will commence. Dew point temperatures will fall back
into the 60s with temperatures only climbing into the 80s to lower
90s. At this time, heat headlines may not be needed for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Large scale troughing will overtake most areas east of the
Rockies in the extended period, with some ridging along the Gulf
Coast and the western states. This will keep us out of the
excessive heat business, and there will be better chances of
rain.

The period will begin with a stalled front in northern Louisiana,
and small chances of showers/thunderstorms near the front in
southern Arkansas on Saturday. The front will drift northward
into the state on Sunday, with isolated to scattered precipitation
during the afternoon in all but the northeast. Temperatures during
the weekend will be seasonal.

Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from
the Plains on Monday. Just like its predecessor, it appears the
front will come to a halt and may wash out somewhere over the
central or southern counties. At the same time, the remnants of
tropical system Beryl will be well to our south, and moisture
surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have hit/miss
thunderstorms mentioned Monday through Wednesday, especially
during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some much
needed rain, temperatures will remain close to normal/not so
hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail at most locations today. Winds
should be out of the S/SW between 5-15 kts. SHRA/TSRA were
mentioned at Nrn terminals late this afternoon into the evening.
PROB30 groups were introduced at Cntrl sites after 08z/09z. This
activity was associated with the approach of a cold front from the
plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  72  90  66 /  30  60  20   0
Camden AR         98  75  92  70 /  10  30  50  20
Harrison AR       98  69  86  62 /  50  50  10   0
Hot Springs AR    99  74  92  69 /  20  40  30  10
Little Rock   AR  98  77  92  72 /  20  40  30  10
Monticello AR     98  77  92  72 /  40  40  70  20
Mount Ida AR      98  71  90  66 /  20  50  30  10
Mountain Home AR  96  71  86  64 /  40  70  10   0
Newport AR        98  73  90  68 /  30  50  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     98  76  91  70 /  30  40  50  10
Russellville AR   99  73  91  68 /  30  60  20  10
Searcy AR         98  73  91  68 /  30  50  30  10
Stuttgart AR      97  76  90  71 /  20  50  40  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-
052>057-062>069-113-121>123-130-138-212-213-230-238.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ103-112-137-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70