522
FXUS64 KLZK 012330
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Latest surface observations across the forecast area indicate
conditions are less supportive of signifIcant heat stress than those
of recent afternoons. Most heat index values are ranging from the
mid 80s to lower 90s.

19z subjective analysis reveals a short wavelength ridge axis from
northeast to southeast across the forecast area.  This feature is
expected to slide eastward during this period.  Low level southerly
flow will develop and slowly increase, with low level humidity
affected accordingly.

With the added low level humidity, moderate instability will
develop late in the period.  Upper level energy will move from west
to east, on a track just north of the Arkansas, Missouri border.
This feature is expected to support convection, with some cells able
to reach northern sections of the forecast area late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The extended term will begin with an upper level ridge of high
pressure across the area, and the heat and humidity will be on full
blast for Wednesday and Thursday - some type of heat advisory or
warning will likely be required.

The upper ridge will shift eastward and a trof will push eastward
across the central part of the country. A cold front will push into
the region Thursday night/Friday, bringing showers and
thunderstorms. Somewhat cooler and drier air will spread across the
region in the wake of the front.

Looking beyond the extended term...we will watch to see what happens
to the remnants of Beryl. Long range models take it across the
Yucatan and into the Gulf...but where it goes from there is still
questionable. There is an outside chance some of the moisture could
make it up this way, but I wouldn`t bank on it just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Lingering CU field acrs western AR wl cont to dissipate early this
evening. Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD. Expect scattered
CU to again form Tue aftn. Light winds tngt wl become S/SE by midday
Tue.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ031-032-039-
042>044-052>055-062-066-067-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-
238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...44