Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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812 FXUS64 KLZK 291946 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad elongated ridge draped over the southeastern CONtinental United States (CONUS) and a seasonably respectable upper level trough pushing east, but north of the ridge axis, over the western upper midwest. Regional surface observations showed temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with dew point values in the mid to upper 70s, bringing heat index values up into the 105 to 110 degree range across much of Arkansas. Heat advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings continue through this evening as very little relief from the heat will occur overnight tonight. To the north, surface observations shows a weak cold/cool front pushing south towards central Missouri and east central Kansas. Through Sunday morning, the Missouri frontal boundary is expected to continue south and move into northern Arkansas by this evening. In addition to short range model guidance advertising this timing, the southern extent of the shortwave trough to our north appears to be sufficient to allow this to actually happen. As the admittedly weak frontal boundary moves into northern Arkansas and encounters the heat and humidity, it should provide enough lift and low-level convergence for some isolated to scattered rain shower and thunderstorm activity to develop right around and just after sunset. This activity will likely weaken overnight as the boundary continues to move south towards central Arkansas. Once the nocturnal boundary layer is established, weak low-level convergence will likely not be able to continue to support rain shower and thunderstorm activity developing farther south. The boundary is expected to settle in around the Interstate 40 corridor before stalling out in the pre-dawn hours of the day on Sunday. How far south the boundary sinks will likely depend on the amount of rain shower and thunderstorm activity that develops this evening as the boundary enters the state. Wherever the boundary stalls out will mark where weather impacts are focused on Sunday. To the south of the boundary, another day of excessive heat is likely. To the north, it won`t be significantly cooler, but there should be enough cloud cover in place to take the edge off of the heat impacts by providing more shade than sun on average throughout the day. Closer to the boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop by early afternoon and possibly as early as late Sunday morning. We`re not looking at anything significant in terms of a severe thunderstorm threat, but collapsing thunderstorms producing microbursts and localized wind damage are possible. Showers and storms should diminish after sunset and the boundary will continue to sink to the south and southwest with northeast winds building in across Arkansas. The boundary is expected to wash out to our south, but the northeast surface winds are expected to continue into the day on Monday which will bring significantly drier and somewhat cooler air across Arkansas. This should allow temperatures across the state to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew point values falling into the mid 60s which will keep heat index values around 90 degrees and provide some much needed relief from today`s heat. Enjoy the day while it lasts; the long term forecast brings the heat back across Arkansas in full force after Monday. Cavanaugh && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A stout and expansive upper ridge will be situated over the ArkLaTex`s region to begin the long term period. At the surface, winds should be in the process of switching from an Erly direction back to a Srly component. With this switch of winds back to a Srly direction, temperature and moisture advection will resume across AR. The pattern will change very little heading through mid-week with the ridge drifting slightly Ewrd towards the TN Valley. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may approach Nrn AR on Wednesday afternoon and again on Friday, better statewide coverage possible for Friday, with the approach of a cold front. The cold front will be aided by a passing upper short wave trough traversing the Nrn Plains into the Nrn MS Valley regions. Temperatures through the upcoming work week are expected to top out in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees each day. Low temperatures are expected to range from the 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat headlines will likely be needed for portions of AR each day through the week. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the hottest day in regards to high and low temperatures and afternoon heat index values. This level of heat will be dangerous, and for those working outdoors or outdoors in general, be sure to take plenty of breaks during the hottest part of the day and stay well hydrated. 70 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 76 90 66 84 / 20 50 0 0 Camden AR 76 95 72 91 / 0 50 10 20 Harrison AR 72 85 66 85 / 40 50 10 10 Hot Springs AR 76 94 71 90 / 10 60 10 10 Little Rock AR 80 94 72 88 / 10 60 10 10 Monticello AR 79 95 74 90 / 10 60 10 20 Mount Ida AR 75 93 71 89 / 10 70 10 10 Mountain Home AR 73 85 65 84 / 50 40 0 0 Newport AR 77 90 67 84 / 30 40 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 78 94 72 88 / 10 60 10 10 Russellville AR 78 93 71 89 / 10 60 10 10 Searcy AR 76 92 68 86 / 10 60 0 0 Stuttgart AR 79 93 72 86 / 10 60 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004-005-014-024- 103-112-113-123-203-212-213-221>223-313. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ006>008-015>017-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121- 122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ042>047- 052>057-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...66