816
FXUS64 KLZK 021928
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
228 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Substantial heat stress conditions will prevail during this forecast
period.

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate scattered CU
across southwest sections of the state, with clear conditions
elsewhere. Heat index values above 100 were noted in the
southwest portions of the forecast area, as well as along the
Arkansas River Valley near and to the west of Little Rock.

Conditions promoting dangerous heat stress conditions will be in
place through the period, as low level moisture increases slightly
area wide.  Also, well above normal overnight low temperatures will
occur, adding to the dangerous heat stress conditions.

A cold front will approach the Arkansas, Missouri border Wednesday
afternoon, and will promote scattered thunderstorm development.
Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, the
greatest chances of which will be across northern sections of the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A lot of changes are in store for the forecast area during the
extended term.

The upper level ridge dominating the area during the short term will
be replaced by a mean trof across the midsection of the country. A
cold front will start to push into the area, and showers and
thunderstorms chances will increase significantly.

Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front,
keeping temperatures more moderated during the remainder of the
term. The front will likely stall out in the vicinity of the AR/LA
border for several days.

Now here comes the big "if" in the forecast. Some models are
bringing the remnants of Beryl (either as a tropical storm or a
lower end hurricane) into south Texas...and bring it up into the TX
Hill Country / North Texas region over the course of several days.
Models are showing the stationary boundary over the AR/LA border
moving north and interacting with deep moisture streaming off the
remnants of Beryl.

At the moment - and at this range - this is still a very low
confidence event, but we will have to keep a careful watch on how
this all plays out. Because under these circumstances, not only
would this bring significant rainfall and flooding to TX, but to AR
as well.

This is still a week away and an awful lot can and will change
between now and then - but we always need to be mindful about the
potential interaction of a landfalling tropical cyclone in the
general region and any potential interaction with a slow-moving or
quasi-stationary boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue during this period. Any
TSRA that affects northern sections on Wednesday are expected to
occur after the valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  98  76  97 /  10  30  10  30
Camden AR         76  99  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
Harrison AR       75  96  73  96 /  10  50  20  30
Hot Springs AR    77  99  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  79  99  80  98 /   0  20  10  20
Monticello AR     77  99  79  96 /   0  10   0  30
Mount Ida AR      75  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  75  96  73  96 /  10  60  20  40
Newport AR        75  98  77  96 /   0  20  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     76  99  78  97 /   0  10   0  20
Russellville AR   78  99  77  98 /   0  20  10  20
Searcy AR         75  98  76  97 /   0  20  10  30
Stuttgart AR      76  97  79  95 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069-
113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-
042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-122-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ052-103-
112-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ121-
130.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...55