351
FXUS64 KLZK 050554
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

To begin the period, hot and humid conditions will continue ahead of
a cold front that is expected to move into the state later this
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of the state this afternoon and evening. The best chance
for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across northern Arkansas.
Currently, storms are beginning to fire off across parts of
northeastern and central Arkansas...this trend will continue
through this evening and tonight. PoPs are expected to become
more widespread later this evening as the cold front moves into
the state.

Drier and somewhat "cooler" conditions are expected Saturday as the
cold front moves south of the state. While temperatures are still
expected to be hot...humidity values will be lowered through at
least the weekend.

As mentioned above, the warmest day of the period will be this
afternoon as high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s with
heat index values getting into the heat advisory/excessive heat
warning criteria. By Friday and Saturday afternoons, high
temperatures will likely drop into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s
to lower 70s by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Large scale troughing will overtake most areas east of the Rockies
in the long term portion of the forecast, with ridging remaining
along the Gulf Coast and the western states. This will keep us out
of the excessive heat business, and there will be better chances of
rain. With sfc ridging to the northeast, rain chances will be in the
forecast on Sunday across all but northeastern parts of the state.
Sunday also appears to be the hottest day during the period.

Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from
the Plains on Monday. The front will likely come to a halt and may
wash out somewhere over the central or southern counties. At the
same time, the remnants of Beryl will be well to our south, and
moisture surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have
hit/miss thunderstorms mentioned Monday through Wednesday,
especially during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some
much needed rain, temperatures will remain close to normal/not so
hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

MVFR conds are expected over Nrn sites tonight with TSRA/SHRA in
the area. This precip is associated with a passing cold front.
TSRA/SHRA will push Swrd through the morning and afternoon with
the advancement of the front, possibly affecting Cntrl sites,
before more redevelopment over Srn locations. Outside of TSRA
activity, VFR conds should prevail. Winds will switch from a SWrly
direction ahead of the front, to NWrly behind the front. Winds at
most locations will be 15 kts or less, with higher gusts found
over higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  67  91  67 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         92  70  91  69 /  60  20  10   0
Harrison AR       86  63  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    91  71  91  69 /  50  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  92  73  92  72 /  50  10   0   0
Monticello AR     92  72  91  72 /  60  20  10   0
Mount Ida AR      89  67  90  66 /  50  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  87  64  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        90  68  89  68 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  71  90  70 /  50  10  10   0
Russellville AR   91  68  91  69 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         91  68  91  68 /  30   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      90  71  89  71 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70