881
FXUS61 KLWX 011848
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of high pressure will pass north of the area
through Tuesday before drifting offshore by Tuesday night. A
warm front will lift north of the area Wednesday. A frontal zone
will likely remain north of the area during the second half of
the week, with a cold front perhaps approaching over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1026 mb high pressure is located over Michigan this afternoon
with an upper level trough axis moving toward the Mid Atlantic
coast. Scattered cumulus and gusty winds in excess of 20 mph
should subside toward late afternoon as the high builds closer.

The center of the surface ridge settles over the northeastern
U.S. late tonight into early Tuesday. With clear skies and light
to calm winds, favorable radiational cooling conditions will
exist. Most of the area will drop into the 50s, while the urban
centers and bayshore stay in the 60s. Some upper 40s are
possible in the western valleys, and some of the typically
colder high elevation valleys could even approach 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will push toward New England Tuesday, allowing
winds to turn to the southeast. Meanwhile mid level heights also
begin to rise. Therefore, it will be a slightly warmer day, with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain
comfortable in the 50s. A mix of cumulus and cirrus will result
in a partly cloudy sky. The upward temperature trend is evident
Tuesday night as well, with more areas in the 60s vs. 50s.

Further warm advection will occur Wednesday, resulting in high
temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s, warmest in the
valleys west of the Blue Ridge. Dry weather will continue
through the day, although dew points may begin nudging into the
lower 60s. The subtropical ridge over the southeastern states
will begin to be flattened by a series of troughs through the
Plains and Canada. This will result in some upstream convection
that may reach the mountains Wednesday night in a decaying
state. Most locations will remain dry though with increasing
mugginess.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 4th of July holiday will begin a period of active weather
across the area through at least the early portion of the
weekend. Warm, moist air will arrive by Thursday, with highs
getting into the low to mid 90s for most areas east of the
Alleghenies. Increasing humidity and a pre-frontal trough may
increase chances for convective elements during the afternoon
and evening hours. Cloud cover will be abundant throughout the
day with breaks here and there.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week and into
the weekend. Similar conditions will be felt most of those days
until a cold front actually moves through Saturday into Sunday.
There may be some increasing instability with this front forcing for
the weekend, some storms may be strong to severe. There is still a
lot of uncertainty with this timeframe but will be worth monitoring
as we head through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With the exception of CHO, SCT to BKN cumulus and northerly
winds gusting to around 20 kt continue this afternoon. Both
should be reduced late this afternoon as high pressure over the
Great Lakes builds closer. VFR conditions are expected tonight
into Tuesday. Light north winds tonight become southeasterly
Tuesday. A mix of cumulus and cirrus is expected Tuesday
afternoon.

A lack of significant weather continues into Wednesday. Any
decaying convection will likely remain west of the TAF sites
Wednesday night.

VFR conditions will mainly be in place Thursday and Friday but there
will be showers and thunderstorms around that may impact the
terminals and cause sub-VFR ceilings. Winds should remain fairly
light heading into the later half of the week.


&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions in northerly post-frontal flow
continues this afternoon. However, winds are beginning to trend
downward, with advisories expected to drop this evening. High
pressure passes to the north Tuesday, with light winds becoming
southeasterly. Winds will become more southerly Wednesday as the
high moves offshore. Channeling effects may result in advisory
conditions along the bay late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night.

Sub-SCA winds are expected Thursday and Friday with gusts 5 to 15
knots out of the southwest. Cannot rule out an SMW for the waters on
either day if any strong thunderstorms cross the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies as low as -1.3 feet are occurring this afternoon in
strong northerly flow. However, anomalies as high as 1.1 feet
have piled up at the south end of the bay, and these may slosh
back northward tonight as winds become light. Further
southeasterly to southerly flow during the middle of the week
may push some locations toward minor flood stage during the
astronomically higher early morning high tides.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...ADS/ADM
MARINE...ADS/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS