078
FXUS64 KLUB 012310
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Dry warm weather will prevail for the reminder of the day and into
the evening hours with low temperatures dropping into the 70s area
wide.

Tomorrow the heat returns along with chances for precipitaion across
our northwestern counties. At the start of Tuesday the FA will find
itself on the northwestern edge of a very elongated mid-level high
that will eventually engulf the Gulf Coast. In this position a
stream of moist air will be ushered back into the area under
southwesterly surface flow. The lack of strong synoptic lift and the
limited moisture profile will keep most of the area dry, but a few
weak disturbances in the main flow will contribute to convection
northwest of a line from Denver City to Childress by early tomorrow
afternoon. In general PoPs for this period remain capped between 15%-
20%. Storms that develop will have likely be accompanied by
lightning and strong wind gusts.

The concern for the Rolling Plains will be the heat. High
temperatures in the mid 100s (with dew points in the 60s) will lead
to heat indices at heat advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon. Have
gone ahead and issued a heat advisory for the far eastern column of
the Rolling Plains with the understanding that it might need to be
expanded westward on the overnight shift.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

We should see similar conditions to Tuesday across the forecast
area on Wednesday. The upper-high will continue to flatten and
shift east in response to the a series of short-wave troughs
progressing from the Rocky Mtn region into the Nrn and Central
Plains. Mid-level moisture funneled in-between the ridge and the
waves will brush our northwest counties and bring a chance of t-storms
to the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains
late Wednesday, lingering into Wednesday night, and perhaps .
Wednesday`s temperatures back back off a degree or two and at this
time it looks like the Rolling Plains will remain shy of heat
advisory criteria with highs below 105.

A cold front will be heading toward the forecast area on Thursday
but currently it is not forecast to arrive until evening, so it
will be another hot day. However, with the ridge replaced by
troughing aloft, and higher amounts of mid-level moisture, we
expect to see an increase in shower and t-storm activity across
the area late Thursday into Thursday night. It`s still too early
to pin down the details with the position of the front and the
relatively narrow mid-level moisture plume, but it appears that
4th of July fireworks may have to compete with nature`s fireworks
Thursday night, as the activity could linger into the night given
the influence of the front and the trough.

The particulars of the forecast are difficult to pin down for
Friday, but at least we are confident that it will be cooler, with
highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s. The best rain chances may
temporarily shift to the south along the front, however, the
strongest lift associated with the trough will be across the north
so for now we will continue with a chance of rain across the
whole forecast area.

For the weekend into early next week, it looks like a strong ridge
will set up along the West Coast, with a broad trough across the
nation`s midsection. This should bring a northwest flow pattern
aloft across our area. While temperatures will rebound from the
relatively cool Friday, this pattern should keep the area from
really heating up again (highs mainly in the 90s) and should also
bring some additional rain chances through the period tied to the
timing of disturbances coming through the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR prevails for the TAF period. Breezy, southerly winds will
remain intact throughout the overnight hours with gusts to 25 kt
possible through 03/00Z. LLWS was removed from the TAFs for this
cycle owing to the expected magnitude of surface winds. Low
chances for thunderstorms return tomorrow evening for KLBB and
KPVW. Check density altitude.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ026-032-038-
044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09