394
FXUS64 KLUB 280538
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Our period of ridging has almost come to a close, in large part due
to an upper level trough that is working its way through the Pacific
Northwest right now, which will turn our flow more zonal.

For tonight, a very marginal chance of thunderstorms exists, thanks
to a modest amount of instability aloft. However, with a distinct
lack of lift and very dry lower levels, reaching this instability
will be difficult. If a storm were to occur, it would be very high
based and lack a meaningful amount of shear, likely attributing to a
short life. It appears that some degree of confluence does exist in
the northeast corner of the CWA, which could assist with
kickstarting any potential storms, but confidence in this confluence
being strong enough to reach any CAPE remains low and thus the
forecast remains dry. Storms are expected in the eastern region of
New Mexico, however, these storms are unlikely to survive all the
way to the border.

Looking at tomorrow, the ridge will give its last heat blast for the
region, as Friday looks to be one of the hottest so far this summer.
Most of the day will feature breezy southwesterly winds,
contributing to an overall drier day, simultaneously bringing the
heat index down while also contributing to a very clear sky
condition. The caprock itself can expect temperatures near 100
degrees, while areas off the caprock can expect temperature near or
in excess of 105 degrees. A heat advisory may prove to be
necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Friday night into Saturday morning, the upper ridge will lift
slightly northward and center over northwest Texas. Most of the
midlevel moisture will remain to our west across New Mexico. Low
level moisture will be present across the forecast area with
southerly surface winds and dewpoints in the lower 60s. Daytime
heating will give way to temperatures warming into the upper 90s to
lower triple digits (just below Heat Advisory criteria). A surface
low Saturday morning will slide southeastward into the Texas
Panhandle. There still remains some model inconsistencies with the
exact location of the low and therefore the position of a stalled
weak and shallow cold front. There is a small chance for an isolated
shower or storm during the afternoon hours ahead of the frontal
boundary. Meanwhile, the best chances for showers and storms will be
along the front where weak convergence will help to provide lift.
There will be plenty of moisture behind the frontal boundary, but
soundings indicate a weak capping inversion to overcome. Overall,
instability parameters are supportive of scattered showers and
strong to an isolated severe storm. The latest trends from the blend
of models have been lower with precipitation chances due to the
ridge building over the forecast area and the weak surface front
potentially setting up farther north. Thus, these details will need
to be monitored as they play a key role in the chances of rain
across the area. A few showers may linger Sunday across the far
southern Texas Panhandle. Otherwise the forecast becomes dry again
Monday before the return of precipitation chances again by mid-week.

The ridge will spin overhead Sunday and Monday before finally
pushing into the southeast CONUS by midweek, which is the pattern
change needed to help bring rain chances back to the forecast area.
Wrap around midlevel moisture on the back side of the ridge, coupled
with several shortwaves in the flow aloft, will help to give way
thunderstorms chances in the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday
through Thursday. In addition to the increased moisture potential,
temperatures will be "slightly" cooler but still very warm and above
normal in the 90s and approaching the triple digits off the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period.
Surface winds will remain light at LBB and PVW overnight while CDS
may be some stronger winds from aloft mixed down to the surface.
With stronger winds of 40 kts at about 1000 feet AGL at CDS LLWS
will be possible through the morning hours. Surface winds will
increase at all sites by mid morning with breezy southwesterly
winds continuing through the early evening hours. A few high based
showers and thunderstorms will be possible around LBB and PVW
late tomorrow afternoon with the main concern being gusty and
erratic winds. Check density altitudes.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...58