131
FXUS64 KLUB 022338
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An upper level shortwave will pass through northern portions of our
area this evening. Combined with a somewhat-strong 850 mb LLJ,
building instability today in mostly sunny skies, and modest mid-
level moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms have been
retained in the current forecast. The instability axis generally
runs north and west of Lubbock and given the position of the
aforementioned shortwave, greatest chances exist across the far
southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. Storms are not
expected to be severe, but a few storms may produce strong winds and
brief heavy downpours. A few showers may linger over the far
southeast Panhandle this evening, however everything should mostly
diminish after sunset. The pattern for Tuesday looks to be quite
similar to that of today and the forecast remains almost identical,
with only slightly higher chances to the northwest as another
shortwave moves through that area. Triple-digit heat will continue
Tuesday as well, albeit a degree or two cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The majority of guidance suggests that gradually weakening t-storm
and shower activity will linger across the area into Wednesday
night, again with the best chances located across roughly the
western and northern portions of the forecast area corresponding
to proximity to lift from the upper trough and the narrow sub-
tropical moisture plume. Then we turn our attention to the cold
front dropping south through the High Plains Thursday which will
usher in some cooler temperatures and better rain chances. The
morning guidance is in pretty good agreement with previous runs
that the front will be on the doorstep of our northern counties by
7pm Thursday evening. This means that our forecast area will be
also to heat up one more day south of the front, so Thursday will
still be hot with highs mainly in the middle 90s to about 103 or
104. As the upper-wave moves overhead, guidance has been fairly
consistently showing isolated to scattered late day t-storms
developing along the surface trough near the Texas-New Mexico
state line with another area along the front in the central and
southern Texas Panhandle. As the front progresses south through
the forecast area Thursday evening, storm chances will
increase/spread across the remainder of the forecast area. Right
not this activity is expected to remain scattered in nature,
however, lightning occurring with some storms could coincide with
outdoor firework activities and possibly cause some delays.

We still expect Friday to the the coolest day in the 7-day forecast,
with highs only in the 80s north of the front, although the
extent of cloud cover and shower/t-storm activity is a bit of a
question mark. There will be ample moisture and some large-scale
ascent associated with the trough, but without our typical strong
surface heating this time of year we could remain too stable for
more than light showers.

Northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend into early
next week as an upper ridge amplifies up the West Coast. This
should bring a period of relatively cool (near-average)
temperatures and keep rain chances going with several shortwaves
passing through the northwest flow. There`s even the possibility
of another front around Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
linger at all TAF sites through the evening. Main threats with
thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic winds, occasional cloud to
ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall at times. Activity
will begin to diminish just after sunset. Thereafter VFR
conditions are expected to prevail. We could see shower activity
continue through daybreak tomorrow at KPVW; however, confidence in
this remains too low for a TAF mention.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...12