Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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904 FXUS64 KLUB 262342 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 642 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level high pressure system centered over southern New Mexico. This feature should meander to the east through the period, causing northerly flow aloft to become calm and variable by Thursday afternoon. Increasing subsidence from the nearby subtropical high should help to produce hot daytime temperatures across the forecast area today, with widespread 100+ degree F highs expected. With backed southeasterly flow helping to sustain surface moisture this afternoon, heat index values above 105 have already been observed, and a Heat Advisory is in effect until 8pm for the Rolling Plains and far southeastern TXPH. If you plan to be active outdoors this afternoon and evening, drink plenty of fluids and make sure to take frequent breaks. This afternoon and evening, there are two areas of focus for the potential for thunderstorm development. First, surface troughing and an uncapped environment should allow for convective initiation in eastern NM later this afternoon. Depending on the placement of these storms, NNW steering flow could allow isolated thunderstorms to propagate into the western South Plains or far southwest TXPH this afternoon and evening. Also, a diffuse surface boundary is currently located across the northern half of the forecast area. A high-based Cu field is evident on visible satellite along this area of convergence, but storm development here is far from certain. Isolated TS PoPs have been added for this afternoon and evening along the boundary. Inverted-v soundings with ample CAPE near CDS demonstrate that if storms develop across the far southern TXPH, strong to severe wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible. Storms should diminish overnight, but the far southwest TXPH may still see an isolated thunderstorm after midnight. Tomorrow`s forecast is expected to be quieter, with no mentionable PoPs through the afternoon and early evening. With the upper-level high continuing to dominate tomorrow, expect hot temperatures across the forecast area. Morning lows will be mild, and high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s and low 100s, with the hottest temps off the Caprock. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The ridge will continue to flatten Friday, centered just south of the forecast area stretching from Baja Cali to Mississippi. Meanwhile, the upper trough responsible for flattening the ridge will be pushing eastward across the Plains. Thus, flow aloft will remain nearly zonal with generally weak westerly winds at 500mb. Despite modest low level moisture and dewpoints in the upper 50s with southerly surface winds, temperature are progged to be very hot in the triple digits (between 100-105 degrees) across nearly the entire forecast area. A few cumulus clouds may bubble Friday afternoon, but the better flow and moisture aloft will be to the north with the associated trough axis. A few storms may develop along the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico, but with weak flow aloft and a lack of any true instability, any storms that develop will struggle to maintain strength into the western South Plains. Saturday will feature increased precipitation chances, but there remains uncertainty in the coverage and chances for rain due to several factors. First, models are trending towards the ridge building slightly northward as the trough in the Plains continues to swing across the Midwest with stronger subsidence over the forecast area, which could limit the storm potential. In addition, the moisture wrapping around the western periphery of the ridge will be placed just west and north of the area. The passing trough will give way to lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado, which will deepen as it`s pushed southward into the Texas Panhandle during the daytime hours Saturday. Model solutions vary on the exact movement and placement of this surface low Saturday, which may heavily play a role in a zone for surface convergence and the greater precipitation chances. Upper 50s dewpoints and very warm temperatures in the 90s ahead of the very weak frontal boundary will still give way to the potential for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of the surface boundary. Once again storm maintenance will be an issue with weak flow aloft, despite MLCAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg and shear of 15 to 20 knots. Any storm that develops will likely remain pulse-like with a few strong wind gusts and small hail possible. The upper high will continue to spin over North Texas through early next week with continued hot temperatures in the upper 90s across the Caprock and lower triple digits (near Heat Advisory criteria) off the Caprock. Mostly dry conditions will remain with the better midlevel moisture axis around the high pressure to the west in New Mexico and north across the Texas Panhandle. Hope for the return of precipitation is not over though as chances increase by mid-to-late next week as the pattern shifts aloft and the upper ridge starts to slide eastward with the potential return of southwesterly flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Isolated TSRA looks to affect only KCDS through 27/01Z or so and have included a VCTS for current convection near there. KPVW has an outside shot at TSRA until around 27/03Z but confidence is not high at all on that happening and have left out. Otherwise, TAFs are VFR through 28/00Z. There is almost no signal for another repeat of afternoon convection on Thursday. JW && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...DF LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...13