Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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736 FXUS64 KLUB 280855 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Heights will be on the increase today over the forecast area as the center of the upper-level ridge attempts to nose back northward behind the departing shortwave. This shortwave strengthened a lee surface low that will slowly slide eastward today across southern Kansas. This will lead to a tightening surface pressure gradient across the forecast area and finally bring a return of drier southwesterly flow. The combination of drier air, a slight downsloping component to the winds, and increasing thickness values means that high temperatures will climb back into the 100-107 degree range today. Therefore yet another Heat Advisory has been issued for locations east of the Caprock escarpment from 1 pm until 8 pm today where high temperatures of 105+ degrees are likely. The other forecast concern for today is in regards to the potential for some high based showers/thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon and evening. Model guidance shows a SW-NE axis of surface based CAPE around 500 J/kg moving into the forecast area this afternoon. With surface temperatures in the lower 100s this should be enough to overcome any capping that is in place as convective temperatures are reached. However, with the well mixed boundary layer, cloud bases will be around 10,000 feet which leaves plenty of room for evaporation to occur hence downbursts will be a concern today (DCAPE values of 1600 J/kg will be present). Of note, the latest CAM guidance seems to be backing off on the instability moving into our area hence they are also coming in drier than previous runs but feel that enough of a signal still exists to keep 10% thunderstorm mentions across the South Plains into the far south central Texas Panhandle. The potential for any showers/storms will quickly dissipate this evening as we lose daytime heating which will leave us with a quiet but warm overnight as low temperatures only drop into the 70s to lower 80s. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The upper-level ridge will continue to shift northward on Saturday and become centered over North Texas. However, overall thickness values will actually decrease Saturday over the forecast area compared to today which will keep temperatures 2-5 degrees cooler (mid 90s to lower 100s). Unfortunately, our surface winds will once again become southeasterly so surface moisture will stream into the Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s hence heat index values of around 105 degrees is possible. A weak surface cold front is expected to enter the Texas Panhandle and then stall near I-40 by the afternoon. This boundary will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development and unfortunately it appears that it will be a bit too far north for better precipitation chances in our area. However, guidance also indicates an area of better mid-level moisture rotating around the western edge of the upper-level high across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Hot temperatures combined with the better moisture may lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon and early evening. Eventually, the thunderstorms in the Panhandle may congeal into a line and move to the southeast potentially impacting the far southeast Texas Panhandle Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Strong straight line winds and brief heavy rainfall would be the primary concern with this activity. The lingering boundary may keep precipitation chances going into Sunday but monsoon moisture will continue lifting north as the center of the upper- level ridge also slides northwest. Fortunately, the increased cloud cover at least in the morning will keep temperatures cooler with most locations remaining in the 90s. The center of the ridge will remain over the forecast area through Monday evening before sliding back east over North Texas by Tuesday morning and then continuing east but elongating across the southeastern US by the middle of the week. This will allow high temperatures to slowly climb Monday into the mid 90s to lower 100s and then peak once again on Tuesday when most locations make it back above the century mark. Fortunately, when the ridge slides east this will allow monsoonal moisture to move back over at least portions of the forecast area Tuesday through the end of next week. Hence each afternoon and evening the South Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle will have a chance at precipitation although widespread rain is not currently anticipated. With the increased moisture and lower thickness values high temperatures should drop back into the 90s by the end of next week. /WI && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. Surface winds will remain light at LBB and PVW overnight while CDS may be some stronger winds from aloft mixed down to the surface. With stronger winds of 40 kts at about 1000 feet AGL at CDS LLWS will be possible through the morning hours. Surface winds will increase at all sites by mid morning with breezy southwesterly winds continuing through the early evening hours. A few high based showers and thunderstorms will be possible around LBB and PVW late tomorrow afternoon with the main concern being gusty and erratic winds. Check density altitudes. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for -026-031-032-037-038-042>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...58