246
FXUS64 KLUB 021706
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A few showers continue across eastern New Mexico early this morning
with an outflow boundary approaching the state line (as of 2 am).
While precipitation should diminish by sunrise the outflow
boundary will need to be watched as this will be a favored
location for afternoon thunderstorm development across our
forecast area. Southerly winds will remain breezy today with
sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The south
southwesterly component of the winds will help temperatures warm
today into the upper 90s to near 105 degrees. Fortunately,
dewpoints will be low enough to keep the heat index close to the
actual temperature so the Heat Advisory for Childress, Cottle,
King, and Stonewall counties is still valid as this is where the
hottest temperatures are expected. By this afternoon, the capping
inversion should erode with tall skinny CAPE present within the
plume of better moisture which will run from near Denver City to
near Childress and points westward. While overall forcing will be
weak enhanced convergence near the decaying outflow boundary
should be the main focus for thunderstorm development this
afternoon. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms should
then enter our area during the evening from eastern New Mexico.
The main concern with this activity would be the potential for
strong wind gusts due to the well mixed boundary layer and cloud
bases near the freezing level. This shower activity may continue
to drift east overnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies keeping
temperatures once again mainly in the 70s. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Wednesday will be fairly similar to Tuesday except it will be a few
degrees cooler and precipitation may start earlier in the day. This
is due in part to increasing upper-level troughing over the central
U.S. which will continue to squeeze the upper-level ridge away from
our area over the southeast U.S. while another upper-level ridge
expands off the west coast. This will keep a moisture plume
located across the South Plains and far southwestern Texas
Panhandle. With increasing upper-level lift showers may develop
around sunrise and persist through the afternoon when instability
is highest. If these morning showers end up being fairly
widespread across the South Plains and far southern Texas
Panhandle then high temperatures may need to be lowered in future
forecasts. As of right now, maintained the blended high
temperatures which has 90s on the Caprock and 100-103 degrees
east of the escarpment.

Thursday will be our last above normal day of temperatures this week
thanks to an approaching cold front. However, before it arrives
winds will become southwesterly which will help to bump temperatures
up a few degrees from Wednesday with high temperatures ranging from
the upper 90s to near 104 degrees. The cold front should move into
the far southern Texas Panhandle by the evening hours and lift along
the front should be sufficient for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development as it sweeps south through Friday morning.
Unfortunately, this means a few Fourth of July firework celebrations
may be interrupted across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the
northern South and Rolling Plains.

The front will be south of our area by Friday morning which means a
much cooler day is in store with high temperatures in the 80s! The
right entrance region of an upper-level jet will be located over the
forecast area so additional showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the day. The upper-level ridge off the western U.S. will
move over northern California on Saturday and remain to our west
through early next week transitioning our upper-level flow to
northwest flow. This will allow several shortwaves to drop over the
forecast area through early next week each bringing additional
chances for precipitation. This will also help to keep
temperatures from warming too much through the end of the extended
period with high temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
/WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Thunderstorms are possible at KLBB and KPVW this evening, however
as confidence remains low that they will make it very far to the
southeast, only VCTS has been included in the latest TAFs. VFR
will persist.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...19