Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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764 FXUS64 KLUB 300100 AAA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 800 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 PoPs have been removed across the extreme southern TX PH for the remainder of the night. A belt of scattered thunderstorms arcs from east-central NM and into the TX PH, with the convection in the TX PH being displaced at least 30 miles north of the CWA border. In-situ, satellite, and WSR-88D trends indicate that the outflow-modified surface trough responsible for forcing parcels to the LFC continues to propagate northwestward towards TCC. Chances for additional convective development are now over across the extreme southern TX PH as the stalled front will remain to the north and west of the CWA, especially as the outflow-modified surface trough interacts with the front. Southwesterly flow throughout the steering layer across eastern NM that becomes westward over the TX PH will govern storm motions away from the northern zones with the aforementioned multi-cellular clusters that are ongoing. The position of the subtropical ridge and its related subsidence in the mid-levels as per recent water-vapor imagery will also suppress any further convective development even if outflow associated with the thunderstorms near the I-40 corridor propagate southward into the extreme southern TX PH as the boundary-layer decouples and diabatic stabilization occurs. Sincavage && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Quasi-zonal flow aloft has settled over the area today with S-southeasterly flow at the surface. Lift from a surface boundary stalled north and west of I27 will continue to aid in isolated storm coverage. Despite the zonal flow, weak perturbations in the midlevel flow, a stalled front bisecting AMAs CWA, SBCAPEs on the order of 1000 J/kg, dewpoints in the 60s and highs well into the upper 90s to low 100s will all help to increase convective coverage as the afternoon wears on across much of the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Some storms may become strong and may pose a damaging wind hazard. It should be noted that any meandering of the stalled front could result in more or less storm coverage across the northern portions of our forecast area. Convection overnight into tomorrow will begin to wane as the aforementioned front moves north and eastward. However, outflow boundaries from storms to our north and northeast overnight could move into our area and depending on moisture availability we could see a few morning storms across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. As noted in the previous forecast if these same outflow boundaries drift further south into the LUB CWA by afternoon they could serve as a focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. For now that looks unlikely, thus a dry forecast has been published. Tonight lows will fall into the mid to upper 70s area wide with mostly clear skies. Tomorrow heat and humidity return high temperatures in the 90s and low 100s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Expansive upper level ridging will continue to be the main driver of our weather over the next several days. Compared to days past, the ridge will center slightly further east beginning late Sunday which will result in a period of drying and subsidence aloft which keeps precipitation chances near zero area-wide on Monday. The heat will also ramp up on Monday and especially on Tuesday as layer thicknesses increase and surface troughing to our north maintains a modest westerly downslope component, which will likely result in heat advisory criteria being met once again in the lower elevations off the Caprock. Upper ridging will begin flattening and will shift even farther eastward over the lower MS Valley beginning on Tuesday, which will result in a return of potentially more unsettled southwesterly flow aloft late Tuesday through Thursday. The monsoonal moisture plume will consequently bend back southward over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle which will bring modest afternoon and evening storm chances to portions of the region during the mid-late week period. Similar to last week though, weak steering flow aloft should keep this activity unorganized and confined mainly to the far SW TX Panhandle and areas along the TX/NM state line. The overall pattern evolution becomes more uncertain late week into the weekend, although general model consensus suggests a northwesterly flow regime may establish as upper ridging builds over the Pacific coast and broad cyclonic flow establishes over the eastern CONUS. In general, this would be a more favorable setup for higher rain chances across more of our area, with cooler temperatures also looking likely for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR prevails for the TAF period with breezy, southeasterly winds diminishing after dark. Winds will also veer southward towards sunrise. Potential for convection affecting KCDS overnight is very low. Check density altitude. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...09 SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09