105
FXUS66 KLOX 021004
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
304 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...01/759 PM.

A significant heatwave will impact the region this week through
early next week, with dangerously hot temperatures across much of
the area. High temperatures by mid to late week are expected to
reach 95 to 105 degrees in many areas away from the coast, with
highs upwards of 105 to 115 over interior valleys and foothills,
including the Antelope Valley. Very warm to hot conditions could
extend closer to the coast by late this week. Patchy night to
morning dense fog will be possible near the coast tonight into
early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...02/252 AM.

The eddy picked up a little more than expected and low clouds have
penetrated a little deeper into the vlys than was expected. The
increase in marine layer depth has eliminated the threat of dense
fog. Other than the more robust low cloud coverage the forecast is
on track with slight warming today followed by more aggressive
warming Wed and Thu.

This heatwave will be generated by a large and warm upper high
that will nose into the state from the west. Hgts over KLAX will
rise from 590 dam this morning to a near record 597 dam (since
1948 the highest 500 mb hgt over KLAX was 598 dam). At the same
time the offshore flow will weaken. The impressive hgts will
smoosh the marine layer down until it will only affect the near
shore area.

Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming away from the coast today with
the coastal areas not showing much change. On Wednesday there will
be 3 to 6 degrees of warming everywhere followed 4 to 8 degrees of
warming for the csts and vlys Thursday as the marine layer
retreats to the beaches. On Thursday the inland coastal areas will
be 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees above normal while the vlys and
interior will be 10 to 15 degrees over normal.

In addition to the highs overnight lows will be uncomfortably warm
in the warm inversion zone (elevations ~800 to 1600 ft) where lows
will only reach the lowers 80s or upper 70s.

Heat warnings already cover the interior and most of the vlys
(and last until Monday) Heat advisories were added for the San
Gabriel Vly for Wed to Sun and the interior coastal sections for
Thu to Sun. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all the details
and precautions.

Winds through the short term should be typical onshore winds each
afternoon to evening period, affecting the interior passes and
canyons, and the Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/303 AM.

Friday will be the warmest day as onshore flow reaches a minimum
and hgts remain near 597 dam. Look for another 2 to 4 degrees of
warming with max temps 110-115 across the interior, 100 to 105 in
the vlys, 90s across the interior coastal sections and 80s at the
beaches. These max temps are 6 to 12 degrees above normal for the
csts and 12 to 18 degrees over normals for the vlys and interior.

The very warm overnight lows will continue as well.

Sundowner winds are possible across the SBA south coast Thu and
Fri evenings and overnight and if these do occur very warm
conditions will rapidly develop in that area with unusual daily
highs occurs during the evening.

Only minimal cooling is forecast over the weekend and all of the
heat warnings and advisories will continue through the period. A
steady increase in onshore flow will bring cooling first to the
csts and then into the vlys. The interior will not see much relief
at all as hgts remain very high.

Long range guidance does not show the upper high breaking down
much at all next week and this extended heat wave may push deep
into next week (esp inland)

The combination of these very hot temperatures, areas of low
humidities and possible sundowner winds will lead to fire weather
risks. Please see the fire weather discussion below for all the
details.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0700Z.

At 0515Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2300 feet with a temperature of 24 Celsius.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Fairly high confidence in KBUR and KVNY with only a 15 percent chc
of IFR conds 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. VFR transition could be
up to 90 minutes later than fcst esp for KSBA, KOXR, KSMO and
KLAX.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of
OVC004 conds 12Z-15Z. There is a 30 percent chc of VFR conds
arriving as late as 18Z. No significant easterly wind component
is expected.

KBUR...Fairly high confidence in TAF. There is a 15 percent chc
of 2SM BR OVC005 conds 12Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/950 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds. Local winds near gale force are possible early
on. For Tuesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. For Friday and Saturday, there is
a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. Winds have fallen below SCA levels, but a SCA
was issued due to steep, choppy short period seas in effect until
3AM Tuesday. For the rest of Tuesday through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Saturday, winds and seas will
remain below SCA levels.

Patchy dense fog (with visibilities one nautical mile or less)
will continue to impact the coastal waters through the week. The
areal coverage of the dense fog will likely decrease each day.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect from 11 AM this
      morning to 6 PM PDT Monday for zones
      38-343>345-353-376>379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect from 11 AM Wednesday
      to 6 PM PDT Monday for zones
      88-342-348-351-352-356>358-369>375-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Thursday to 6 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones 341-347-355-368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Wednesday to 6 PM PDT
      Sunday for zone 548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/RAT
SYNOPSIS...Cohen/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox