308
FXUS63 KLMK 020153
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
953 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Unsettled weather expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday
    with daily chances of showers/storms.  Strong to severe storms
    are possible Wednesday afternoon/evening and possibly on Friday.
    Damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and intense lightning
    will be possible with the storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The current forecast remains on track; quiet weather and seasonably
cool temperatures are expected tonight with lows falling into the
50s and lower 60s across the region. While there are scattered high
clouds passing from NW to SE across the region this evening, these
clouds should dissipate over the next few hours, leaving us with
mostly clear skies for much of the overnight hours. Light E/NE winds
will continue as sfc high pressure continues to drift eastward into
the day tomorrow. The only feature of interest overnight is a band
of higher 850 mb moisture which should advect northwestward from
northern GA and eastern TN toward eastern and central KY by dawn
Tuesday. This moisture advection may be sufficient for the
development of scattered low-mid clouds tomorrow morning, which may
hold low temperatures up by a few degrees, particularly around Lake
Cumberland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The axis of an upper ridge is currently working east over Illinois
as it continues towards the Lower Ohio Valley. This is pushing the
center of a large area of surface high pressure east through the
Great Lakes, and this is what is driving our winds out of the
northeast to east-northeast through the rest of the evening.
Temperatures are near 80 with dew points near 50 across the area.

Tonight, skies will remain mostly clear, but some scattered cirrus
will stream overhead as calming winds continue slowly veering
towards the east. This should allow for some good radiative cooling,
allowing temperatures to fall into the low 50s to low 60s. Most will
see the mid to upper 50s.

Tomorrow, as the center of the surface high makes it to New York,
the back side of the high will quickly veer our winds to the south.
Some light cumulus will be possible, but increased warm air
advection and lots of sunshine will lift temperatures back to the
upper 80s and low 90s. Dew points will return to the mid 60s to low
70s, so it will feel much warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Tuesday Night through Friday Night...

Upper ridging will hold sway and keep our weather quiet for Tuesday
night.  Tuesday night lows will be quite mild with readings in the
upper 60s to lower 70s east of I-65.  West of I-65, lower 70s will
be commonplace.

Moving into Wednesday, upper level ridge axis will flatten out a bit
as a mid-level shortwave trough axis cruises through the Great
Lakes.  Within a return flow regime, we`ll see strong heating during
the day with highs topping out in the the lower 80s.   Given temps
forecast temps in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower-mid 70s
should result in ample instability developing through the afternoon.
Synoptic scale forcing (height falls due to passage of upper trough
axis) and a weak cold front look to force convection across the
Midwest and down into the Ohio Valley.  While mid-level flow will be
stronger to our north, we`ll have weaker flow down south of the
river along with marginal lapse rates.  It appears that some sort of
convective line will develop ahead of a southward sagging cold front
and may produce a round of strong/severe storms.  Current thinking
is that best instability/shear will be to our north and that some
strong/severe storms would be possible down to about the KY/IN
border.  This activity will likely roll through our CWA into
Wednesday evening before dying out with the loss of daytime heating.
Storms that do develop will have the potential to produce damaging
winds, torrential rainfall, and intense lightning.  Slow flow aloft
would lead to slower storm motions which could result in some local
water issues in some areas.  Lows Wednesday night will only drop
into the lower-mid 70s.

Heading into the Fourth of July, upper level ridge axis will remain
entrenched across the SE US with a west-southwest flow aloft across
the Ohio Valley.  Aforementioned cold front from Wednesday will
likely remain in the vicinity and serve as a focus for convective
redevelopment.  The convective evolution is quite uncertain here as
we`ll likely have some left over boundaries and probably some cloud
debris that may affect our afternoon heating.  Nonetheless, we`ll
have some instability and showers/storms will be around.  Focus for
more organized convection looks to remain to our northwest, but any
storms on Thursday will be capable of torrential rainfall, gusty
winds, and frequent lightning.  Those with plans for the Fourth
should continue to monitor upcoming forecasts closely.  Highs will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the low-mid 70s.

On Friday, we`ll see another, but stronger mid-level trough axis
push through the Midwest and Great Lakes while dragging a stronger
cold front through the region.  The Euro solution is a bit more
amped up in its 01/00Z and 01/12Z solutions which may result in
another bout of strong/severe storms on Friday.  Highs will be in
the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight lows in the upper 60s to
around 70.

For the weekend and into early next week, pattern change aloft looks
to occur with strong ridging developing out across CA/NV/OR with a
downstream trough axis across the eastern US.  This would
effectively push the cold front on through our area yielding a
cooler and less humid weekend.  Highs Sat/Sun/Mon look to average
near normal with upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

High pressure just northeast of the region continues to bring light
northeast winds this evening, with winds expected to gradually
diminish overnight tonight. High clouds left over from thunderstorms
over the Great Plains will continue to drift overhead through the
evening hours, with the low-mid levels of the atmosphere remaining
dry overnight. By Tuesday morning, the high pressure will push
farther off to the east, causing winds to veer to southerly by
tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, greater low-level moisture will
approach from the southeast, which could be enough for the
development of a SCT-BKN cu field tomorrow afternoon. Cloud bases
should be in the 4-5 kft range, but there is a low probability of
brief MVFR ceilings at RGA/LEX/BWG late tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions prevail through the current forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG