339
FXUS65 KLKN 012209
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
309 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

SYNOPSIS...Dry weather continues across the Silver State with
breezy afternoon winds and temperatures increasing each day. Odds
are increasing of a heat wave towards the end of this week.


&&

.UPDATE...Updated the forecast to include showers and
thundershowers across portions of NE Nevada.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1225 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024/

SYNOPSIS...Dry weather continues across the Silver State with
breezy afternoon winds and temperatures increasing each day. Odds
are increasing of a heat wave towards the end of this week.

SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Satellite shows some cumulus clouds across portions of northern
Nevada, which will continue to develop through the afternoon.
There is a low chance of a shower across northern Nevada today
(<10% chance) and for that reason no weather was included in the
grids. Elevated fire weather condtions are forecasted this
afternoon with relative humidity percentages as low as 10-20% and
winds gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon. Highs this afternoon
will range in the mid to upper 80s for many. Lows are forecasted
in the upper 40s to 50s.

Tuesday, the trough will progress eastward and out of the area.
Breezy afternoon winds will resurface, creating another round of
elevated fire weather condtions. Dry weather will continue with
highs in the mid upper 80s for most and overnight lows in the 40s
and 50s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday

Ensemble models show the upper level trough moving east with an
high pressure system moving in just behind over California by
Wednesday evening which will keep a northwesterly flow over the
silver state and last till Friday. By Friday afternoon into
Saturday, the high pressure will situate over the southwest,
centered over the southern California/Nevada border.

Temperatures starting Wednesday are expected to have highs in the
80s to 90s and gradually warm up each day with Friday highs
expected in the 90s and by the weekend could see highs in the
upper 90s to 100s, lasting through Monday. Low temperatures also
expected to see a warming trend with Wednesday lows in the 40s to
50s, and by the weekend into Monday, see low temperatures into the
50s to 60s.

Winds expected to see a change over the long term with Wednesday
winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph in the afternoon. Thursday,
as the frontal systems move eastward, winds are expected to be
lighter but still expected to elevate in the afternoon at 10-15
mph from the northwest. The rest of the long-term will see winds
be lighter with northerly winds at or below 10-15 mph for higher
elevations in the afternoon, calm winds everywhere else.


AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hour period
with northerly winds this evening at 10-12 kts, gusts 20-22 kts
and is expected to diminish overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions continue this
afternoon across Nevada due to minimum relative humidity
percentages around 15 percent and west to northwest wind gusts 25
mph. A few dry thunderstorms are still possible across Northern
Elko county this afternoon, however the chicanes remain < 10 % so
no weather is reflected in the grids. Gradual warming is expected
Tuesday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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