285
FXUS64 KLIX 041151
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
651 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy 4th of July everyone. As you take part in your hot dog
eating contest and maybe a few burgers along with tasty beverage
to wash it down remember to try and find a few ways to stay cool
today. Luckily conditions should be slightly less oppressive than
yesterday which was less oppressive than the days prior. One other
thing which will help keep the heat down some will be convection.

Today we are already seeing isolated to widely scattered
convection at 8z and these storms appear to be in the middle of
the deeper moist airmass (TPW from GOES16 had 2.35 to 2.45"), in
the instability ridge and lined up with weak LL convergence from
Vermillion Bay to Hattiesburg. Convection will likely begin to
taper off over the interior areas just before sunrise with most of
the inland areas dry through much of the morning. The deeper
moisture and LL convergence will slide very slowly to the
northwest and could spark convection across the northwestern
half/3rd of the CWA around midday/early afternoon but it looks
like storms should real congeal around the river parishes across
the area between BTR, HUM, and MSY. The heaviest rain appears to
be in that area from mid afternoon through 00z and seems like it
will be from the combination of the sea breeze, lake breeze and
even a possible differential heating boundary from the Atchafalaya
Basin. As some locations saw yesterday convection will be VERY
efficient with warm rain processes occurring. This could quickly
lead to locally heavy rain and add up quickly. Again convection
may get started late morning/midday but those initial storms will
be isolated in nature and that would allow most of the area to
heat up with numerous locations seeing the heat index around 109
to 110. The heat advisory that was issued earlier still looks good
and no changes were needed to it.

Tomorrow is more interesting. The ridge that has been giving us this
recent heat wave and steering Beryl towards the Yucatan will
continue to slowly flatten out across the Gulf coast while the
western periphery starts to slowly erode. Mid lvl hghts start to
fall and cool some. Which would increase the convection potential
but even more so looks to be the approach of a front in the
afternoon. The combination of the front, improving mid lvls, very
high moisture content (PWs abv 2.3"), a good bit of instability in
place as we heat up into the lower to mid 90s we could see
widespread showers and thunderstorms along the front. WPC has the
area place under a Marginal Risk and can`t argue about that given
the moisture content in place and likely efficient storms.
Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain could occur through tomorrow.
/CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Through the weekend rain chances will remain elevated as that
front on Friday stalls over the area. As for Beryl models have
come into fairly good agreement with it continuing to track to the
WNW across the Yucatan and eventually into Mexico just south of
Brownsville.

The stalled boundary near or along our coasts should provide a nice
focus for additional storms on Saturday and if it hasn`t washed out
by Sunday that will lead to more afternoon storms. Temperatures will
remain on the warm side with highs in the lower 90s with a few mid
90s. The heat index could be borderline Advisory criteria.

Heading into next week the weakness on the west side of the ridge
should allow Beryl to curve more to northwest this weekend and then
north across TX early next week. This will have no impact on our
area and the ridge to our east will start to build in back across
the southeastern CONUS and the north-central and northeast Gulf
coasts. Moisture will still be abundant and daily afternoon
convection can be expected. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Most terminals are in VFR status but MCB has been dealing with IFR
and recently LIFR cigs...dropping down to 200 ft. MCB has also
been dealing with reduced vsbys but only down to 4sm MVFR. This
should improve at MCB in the next hours or so as we heat up but
convection is expected to impact most if not all terminals with
BTR, MCB, HUM, and possibly HDC seeing the greatest impacts first
between 17 and 22z. MSY, NEW, and ASD likely see the bulf of their
impacts during the afternoon hours possibly after 19/20z.
Convection then could linger at those sites along with HUM till
01/02z and then most storms should either have already dissipated
or quickly dissipating. Isolated convection may begin to redevelop
after 6z along the tidal lakes and MS Sound which could be close
emough to impact MSY, NEW, and GPT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure remains in control across the area and should remain
in place through the remainder of the workweek. Generally benign
conditions will continue through Friday outside of any
thunderstorm. We continue to watch Beryl as it approaches the
Yucatan and then into the southwestern Gulk by Saturday. It still
looks like only very minimal indirect impacts are expected with
slightly higher seas from a building swell due to Beryl. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  75  91  73 /  80  20  80  40
BTR  94  79  95  78 /  80  20  70  30
ASD  94  78  94  78 /  80  30  70  30
MSY  92  80  94  80 /  80  40  70  20
GPT  91  78  92  78 /  70  30  70  40
PQL  94  78  95  77 /  70  30  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB