796
FXUS64 KLIX 030448
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The heat has been the big story today. Air temperatures are in the
upper 90s to near 100 in some spots, but heat indices breaching 110
deg F are currently being observed across the CWA due to dew points
resting in the upper 70s to near 80 deg F. These abnormally high
temperatures are thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the
region causing large-scale subsidence. This has also lowered today`s
rainfall coverage and confined it to near the coast, particularly in
Terrebonne Parish along the sea breeze front, which is weaker than
normal due to weak and variable winds across the CWA. These showers
will dissipate once the sun sets as usual. Overnight lows will once
again be above the climatological norm, failing to get below 80 deg
F in most regions with the exception of the northshore and southwest
Mississippi, who should reach the upper 70s. Game changer, I know...

POPs tomorrow will be greater than they were today. Moisture content
will increase areawide as the ridge starts to thin somewhat.
Guidance also suggests that sea breeze development may begin earlier
than usual due to the onshore as winds become more southerly and
orients the boundary more perpendicular to the coastline, optimizing
lift. Accordingly, rainfall may begin earlier than normal for the
sea breeze. As a whole, temperatures will drop tomorrow as well due
to the increased cloud cover with the aforementioned enhanced
moisture content, but will still remain very hot with heat indices
between 105-110 deg F. A heat advisory has been issued for areas
along and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor tomorrow from 10AM
through 7PM CT.

A similar story will be in place on Wednesday Night into the
Fourth of July - very warm overnight with high POPs and hot
temperatures during the day, so make sure you account for this in
your outdoor plans. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to
mid 90s with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees
possible. A heat advisory may be needed for Thursday, depending on
the moisture and PoPs, so this will need to be looked at more
closely in the next forecast cycle. It is very difficult to pin
down exact locations for where rain may fall in these situations,
so please do not rely on exact CAM reflectivity output and make
sure you have access to live radar imagery. Make sure to stay
hydrated and limit time outdoors during peak daytime heating
hours!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Heat still continues through the long term although we will have a
little bit of a reprieve, relatively speaking at least. On Thursday
and Friday we will have some higher PoP chances and coverage due to
the ridge currently dominating over the area having a little bit of
weakening. This should help keep the temperatures from getting to
heat advisory levels in some spots but still can`t rule it out
especially for places that don`t get any convection. It`ll
definitely be borderline.  Out of all the days in the long term,
Saturday would be the most likely to have a heat advisories.

Meanwhile, we do continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. The official
forecast track has it moving W/WNW towards Mexico (Yucatan, then
towards northern Mexico/south tip of Texas). Beryl will be entering
a unfavorable area for hurricanes through so there will be some
weakening expected but the eventual track will depend on how much it
weakens. Last Sunday morning there is still a long of uncertainty
with wide model spread but as of right now Beryl is currently not a
concern for the area in the next 7 days. But we are still watching
Beryl very closely and we will let everyone know once we have more
concrete information.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Expect VFR conditions to prevail tonight and into the morning.
Typical summertime convection is expected to form during the mid-
afternoon around 17-18z as we reach the convective temperature.
Due to the pop-up nature of these storms, it`s still uncertain
where they will form and where they`ll go since that will largely
be dictated by the boundaries they produce. Thus, only VCTS has
been mentioned at most sites tomorrow afternoon and evening. Any
storms should dissipate shortly after the sun goes down as they
lose the daytime heating and VFR conditions will persist
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Benign marine conditions expected in the next 7 days. Generally,
moderate (10-15kts) and southerly winds expected. There will be
the potential for daily morning showers and storms that could
pose a hazard to mariners due to lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  98  76  93  75 /  10  10  80   0
BTR 101  81  96  80 /  30  10  90   0
ASD  97  79  93  78 /  30  10  90  10
MSY  96  82  93  80 /  40  10  90  10
GPT  96  80  90  78 /  40  30  80  20
PQL  96  78  93  77 /  30  40  80  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-071-076-079>086.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSW