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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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972 FXUS64 KLIX 102318 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 618 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Shear axis remains in place across the area, but quite a significant gradient in moisture from south to north. As an example, the precipitable water value on our sounding this morning was 2.2 inches, but the JAN sounding was at 1.3 inches. While the McComb area probably isn`t real close to that 1.3 reading, they are seeing dew points in the upper 60s, which is 5-10 degrees lower than most of the area. Areal coverage of precipitation has diminished considerably over the last hour or two, with most remaining precipitation near the Interstate 10 corridor. Areas that haven`t seen precipitation today have generally warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but rainy areas have been in the lower and middle 80s. Most remaining land based convection should dissipate toward sunset. The usual late night convective development over marine areas is expected again early Thursday morning, drifting into the coastal parishes around sunrise. Areal coverage of land based convection on Thursday likely to be a bit less than today as precipitable water values will be closer to 2 inches than 2.2 inches. Trimmed the hourly NBM PoPs a bit tomorrow to be a bit closer to the globals and the representation we see on most of the CAMs. Again, most convection should dissipate around sunset tomorrow. Will stick with NBM deterministic temperatures through the period, realizing that convection will bust temperatures in a few locations. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Weak upper ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually strengthen a bit going into the weekend. Unfortunately, moisture levels won`t change significantly, with precipitable water values generally remaining around 2 inches for much of the period. This is likely to produce isolated to scattered diurnally forced convection each day. A very weak shortwave could bring a little relief to perhaps the northeast part of the area by Tuesday, but that`s not a high confidence solution. NBM deterministic numbers look very reasonable, especially for areas that don`t see convection by mid-afternoon on a particular day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions through much of the cycle. MCB may have some CIG/VIS reductions early morning...kept the TEMPOs ongoing/unchanged for this package. Otherwise, for afternoon convection used PROBs at most sites except MCB where VCs were used. Otherwise, winds look to remain light and variable through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Main marine concern will be thunderstorms and related impacts. Most marine thunderstorms will occur during the overnight and morning hours, with strong winds and locally higher seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 92 72 93 / 10 30 20 40 BTR 76 95 77 95 / 10 50 30 60 ASD 75 92 76 94 / 20 60 20 60 MSY 78 90 78 93 / 20 70 30 70 GPT 76 91 76 93 / 20 50 20 50 PQL 75 94 75 96 / 20 40 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW