324
FXUS64 KLIX 101732
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Moisture axis is showing where it is located this morning with some
sh/ts developing along it from coastal Mississippi westward into
Iberville Parish. There will be a few storms that could develop
north of this line today but most of the activity will be found
along and south of it. NBM is showing precip numbers higher farther
south this morning but we will bring numbers higher along the line
where they are forming already which is where the NAM is doing a bit
better at showing this. Basically going with a mix of the NAM and
NBM for today. Thu should be much of the same with maybe a slight
fluxuation in the boundary. Again, these storms will have ample
opportunity to produce very heavy rainfall in short periods of time
that could cause some isolated flooding issues from day to day.
These sh/ts will help keep heat advisories out of the headlines for
now. Basically, we have slipped back into a relatively normal summer
pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A diurnal swing in precip will occur daily with respect to this
boundary. Some nocturnal sh/ts should also get going each morning as
well over or near the coast. The rainfall, mainly during the
daylight hours, with these storms will be heavy so isolated flooding
rain will be possible each day through the remainder of the week.
The environment will be conducive to waterspout/landspout
development daily as well, which should be most likely during the
morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Shear axis stretching from northeast to southwest across the CWA
is providing a focus for convective development, with potential
for TSRA impacts in the very near term at KHUM/KMSY/KNEW, and a
lower threat at remaining terminals with the exception of KMCB
later this afternoon. MVFR ceilings and IFR or lower visibilities
would be the main direct impacts. Most convection should dissipate
near 00z Thursday. MVFR ceilings, and potentially SHRA, will
likely return to coastal areas prior to sunrise Thursday.

Not really a lot of change for tomorrow other than the axis
becoming more east-west oriented. This will bring another round of
SHRA/TSRA with similar impacts. Areal coverage will probably be in
the scattered range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Winds and seas have fallen back to normal summer like values and
these light and variable to light southerly flow will remain through
the rest of the week. But storm chances will be high daily and any
of these could produce strong winds and rapidly higher seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  72  92  72 /  10   0  40  10
BTR  95  77  95  77 /  40  10  60  10
ASD  91  76  93  76 /  70  30  80  20
MSY  90  78  92  78 /  70  30  80  20
GPT  89  76  92  77 /  70  30  70  20
PQL  92  75  95  75 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE