Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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294 FXUS64 KLIX 302045 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 345 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .Key Messages... 1 - Dangerous heat will continue to affect the area through at least Monday. Warm overnight lows will contribute to the heat impacts and those without adequate access to air conditioning will be especially susceptible to the heat. 2 - Tropical Depression Three has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is not expected to have any impact on the local area. 3 - Hurricane Beryl, now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, will move through the Caribbean this week. It is forecast to approach the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. While it currently looks unlikely that Beryl will bring direct impacts to the local area, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast beyond Friday. Therefore it is important to keep up with the forecast throughout the week as the situation beyond Friday starts to become clearer. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Heat continues to be the main hazard of concern in the short term. Looking at heat index values across the region as of 2:30p, several stations in the current heat warning area are reporting 113 or higher, with a few stations closing in on 120. In the advisory area, most stations are reporting 105-110. The main exceptions are in areas where rain has cooled things off. With the exception of some areas on the MS Coast, showers and storms have been rather isolated, so most places are still plenty toasty. Still looks like a backdoor front/trough will move into the area tomorrow. However, drier air will lag behind, with lower dewpoints not starting to filter into the area until late tomorrow night. This means it`ll still be plenty humid throughout the day. There`s a question mark on temperatures though having to do with how widespread convection will be along the boundary and when it will fire. Current forecast calls for higher POPs to hold off until mid/late afternoon, which would allow plenty of time to reach advisory/warning criteria for heat before things start to cool down a bit as a result of the rain cooled air. Current forecast has maximum apparent temperature values of 115 to 120 degrees across areas along/south of the interstate corridor and also near the Atchafalaya River through Wilkinson County. Some locations through coastal SE LA and also through portions of the northern Florida Parishes and Pearl River County are also currently forecast to see heat index values potentially rise to around 115 degrees. However, confidence in these areas is a little lower. For the time being, will leave the inherited configuration of heat advisories/warnings unchanged. However, that comes with the caveat that some portions of the current advisory may still need to be upgraded to a warning with the overnight forecast update. Regardless of whether the warning is expanded or remains unchanged, the message is the same - it`s going to be HOT tomorrow and anyone who will be outside needs to take precautions to stay safe from the heat. Regarding the rain forecast, while overall rain chances are fairly high tomorrow, coverage at any given time will likely be generally scattered and area average rainfall totals will be generally low. However, with the deep moisture still in place and PW values forecast to be nearing or exceeding the daily max, some storms will certainly be capable of efficient rainfall. Would not be surprised if a few places see an inch or two of rain in a relatively short period. In other news... Tropical Depression Three has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Monday morning. This system will have no impact on the local area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The strong upper level ridge centered just northwest of the CWA Monday will slightly slide northeastward Tuesday but expand quite a bit to the east. Its vertical and horizontal changes will not translate to any meaningful changes locally on Tuesday. Still expecting very hot temperatures with dangerous heat indices expected over the CWA. Expect to see another round of Heat Advisory and/or Excessive Heat Warning products issued. Convective coverage will be the only potential relief from heat impacts, at least temporarily. The greatest chance to see storms will be along sea breeze boundaries for initiation. As the afternoon/evening progresses, outflow boundaries will play a bigger part in what storms develop where. Will also note that while overall 12hr POP is fairly high, probably won`t see more than scattered coverage at any one point of the day. Longer term model solutions have been gradually suggesting that the ridge will not weaken as much as previously thought. So although temps may lower somewhat, still looking to be quite hot with highs well into the mid 90s. This may result in the need for a heat advisory every day this week (feels like last summer when we issued a record number of heat advisories). The end of this week into next weekend will certainly be worth monitoring. NHC`s 5 day forecast suggests Hurricane Beryl will still be heading west through the western Caribbean towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Ensemble guidance beyond day 5 shows a huge spread in tracks ranging from continued westward movement into Mexico to curving northward through the western Gulf of Mexico. The evolution of the upper ridge aloft today will play a big factor in long term steering of Beryl as does its intensity late this week. With so much uncertainty that far out, still in the monitor closely phase. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the main concern being isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The timing of impacts at any specific location is difficult to nail down at this point, so have generally included only vicinity groups for the afternoon and early evening hours with the 18z update. Any direct impacts to the terminals will need to be handled with short term amendments. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Weather across the coastal waters will remain generally benign outside of convection. However, the chance of showers and storms will be fairly high tonight through at least mid week. While higher winds and seas will accompany any storms, winds otherwise should generally be no higher than 10-15 knots with seas/waves mostly 2 ft or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 76 95 73 95 / 30 30 10 40 BTR 81 99 78 98 / 30 50 20 60 ASD 79 97 78 95 / 30 50 30 60 MSY 82 97 81 94 / 40 60 30 70 GPT 78 97 79 93 / 30 40 30 60 PQL 78 99 77 95 / 30 40 30 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034- 035-046>048-056>060-064-065-076>090. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034- 035-046>048-056>060-064-065-076>090. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ036-037-039- 066>071. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ036-037-039- 066>071. GM...None. MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068- 083>088. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068- 083>088. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ069>071-077. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ069>071-077. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM