695
FXUS64 KLCH 041131
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure currently situated overhead and over the northeast
Gulf will both begin breaking down today. It appears the surface
high is already beginning to back off considering shower and weak
thunderstorm development along coastal communities this morning.

Typical diurnal convection can be expected today within a densely
moist airmass at the surface. Very similar to yesterday, if you
find yourself beneath a thunderstorm, expect very heavy rainfall,
lightning and some gusty winds. Rainfall should keep many areas in
check for temperatures; mid 90s inland with low 90s near coastal
areas. This won`t stop many areas from seeing high Heat Indices up
to 111F. Where this may occur, a Heat Advisory is in effect.

For those out and about for the Holiday, keep your heat
precautions in mind and remember: When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!

Ridging further breaks down on Friday opening the door for more
widespread convection. Once again, not anticipating severe
weather, but heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning can be
expected with storms. With more widespread cloud cover and
rainfall, the picture of Heat Indices isn`t as clear. Areas may
warm to 105 to 108F in the afternoon. Indices over 108F aren`t as
likely, so no Heat Headlines are in place for Friday.

Saturday, a cool front nears the region bringing about another
round of widespread showers and thunderstorms and temps in the low
90s for ALL!

Back to back to back days of very efficient rain makers could
start to exacerbate flooding conditions, thus the entire area has
been painted into a Marginal (1 of 4) Level for the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook Friday and Saturday. Where many storms cross,
train or stall, flash flooding will be possible.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The overall theme of the long term is pretty much...rain, as
elevated POPs are being carried in the long term grids each day
beginning Sunday.

The wrn Gulf region is generally expected to remain under the
influence of a cntl CONUS trof through Wednesday. Meanwhile, a weak
sfc boundary is progged to meander to our north. Additionally,
plentiful moisture streaming around TC Beryl, forecast to make
landfall somewhere in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley late in
the weekend, is forecast to linger, with forecast soundings
indicating mean RH values to 70 percent, mainly over our TX zones,
and PWAT values up to 2.2 inches. With these ingredients in place,
expect widely scattered showers/storms to develop with heating on
Sunday. Monday looks largely like a repeat with similar elevated
rain chances.

Rain chances increase further for Tuesday/Wednesday as the remnants
of Beryl drift nwd through cntl TX, while moisture further escalates
as another wave (AL96?) shifts ewd through the srn Gulf, throwing
moisture nwd as it approaches the Mexican coast.

Regarding Beryl, it must be repeated that while confidence in its
future track is improving, by no means is it an absolute and large
deviations are not out of the question. The most likely impacts for
our area remain minor coastal flooding, but should the track get
adjusted further nwd in the coming days, those impacts will
change/worsen...stay tuned.

The good news in the long term is that with all the cloud
cover/rainfall being forecast, temperatures are not looking to run
as warm as during the days prior. Forecast highs generally top out
in the lower 90s each day. Peak heat index values generally look to
stay below advisory criteria at this time.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Nocturnal showers are developing and moving inland near coastal
terminals. Ridging aloft should begin breaking down today, causing
a further increase in convection across all terminals today. All
coastal terminals are carrying VCSH through about 17Z, thereafter
all terminals will carry at least VCTS. LFT and ARA may see a
better coverage in storms due to moisture pooling in the area.

With storms, expect MVFR or IFR cigs, lowered VIS, heavy
downpours, gusty winds and lightning. Outside of storms, MVFR
ceilings and southerly winds can be expected.

Conditions improve after sundown with a return to VFR ceilings and
low winds. During overnight hours, some haze will be possible due
to area fireworks displays.

11/Calhoun

&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure aloft will begin to weaken overhead today and
Friday, allowing for the return of normal diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms. Coverage looks to again be fairly scattered
today, but may become more widespread over the weekend as ridging
overhead fully breaks down.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
prevail through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas
will begin to increase late Saturday into Sunday as a pressure
gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region.

11/17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  76  95  73 /  40  20  60  40
LCH  91  79  93  78 /  60  10  50  30
LFT  93  80  94  78 /  70  10  60  30
BPT  94  78  95  77 /  40  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-152>154-252-253.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259-260.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11