671
FXUS64 KLCH 022118
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
418 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A weak stationary front has stalled out along NELA while stretching
east under a region of sfc high pressure located along New England
and the Carolinas. With very dry air mixed in the lower atmosphere,
shower / thunderstorm activity is more limited through the evening
hours. However, in line with some of short range guidance showers
and storms developing over Acadiana will continue to build to the
West before gradually dissipating into the early AM hours of
Wednesday. Well continue to see the potential for shower and storms
Wednesday as a weak trough axis shifts west along the LA Gulf Coast
toward SETX. These showers / storms will temper down the heat across
coastal locations so at this time have not included these areas
(primarily south of I-10) within the CWA for the Heat Advisory 11AM-
7PM CDT Wednesday. However, more interior SETX and SWLA locations
will experience slightly higher temperatures which hedge just into
heat advisory criteria at this time. Regardless, temperatures in the
low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will make for very hot
conditions which still warrant frequent breaks and sufficient
hydration when exposed to this weather for prolonged periods of
time. That will be the case across the CWA regardless of heat
headlines.

On Independence Day(Thursday), the temperatures remain similar to
ranges as the previous day trending low to mid 90s with the higher
temperatures focused into interior SETX / SWLA. That said, do note
any summertime shower activity appears to trend most favorably along
the Acadiana region. Despite POPS in the forecast, not expecting
washout forecast for the day. Currently Isolated to scattered
showers / storms are forecast for the midday with a slot of low
level dry air from the SSW west becoming entrained in the
environment signaling POPs to decrease toward the evening and
further trend down overnight. For those planning to spend extra time
outdoors for various festivities, do note, temperatures will still
be quite warm with the humidity into the evening hours so frequent
breaks and hydration are encouraged, even with southerly breezes
around 5-10mph. Hereafter, high pressure will continue to broaden /
slacken across the Gulf Coast overnight into Friday.

Kowalski/30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Some minor but no significant change in thinking or increase in
confidence in parts of the long term forecast. Overall we can expect
higher PoPs and lower (but still hot) temperatures. It should be
noted that temperatures will remain above average for the duration
of the period, however they will be borderline Heat Advisory
criteria at best.

The upper ridge that has kept the Gulf Coast hot and mostly dry will
begin to weaken and flatten as it is moved off to the east with an
approaching upper trough. Closer to the surface, there will be a
high pressure over the eastern gulf that will keep our winds mostly
out of the south over the long term period.

A cold front will also move close to the region, however it will not
make its way south into the area. We will see an increase in PWATs
as the front sags across central to eastern Texas and across into
southern Arkansas. By Saturday, we will see PWATs at or above the
90th percentile. This combined with diurnal processes will lead to
an increase in PoPs and rainfall totals across the region. At this
time, the northern half of the CWA is in a day 5 Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall. This will be watched as the week progresses.

Regarding the tropics, confidence still remains low as we get closer
to the weekend and beyond that point. The latest trends generally
show a slightly more northern track in comparison to previous days.
Overall it is expected to emerge into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday, then turn slightly more towards the north.
Around the Sunday into Monday timeframe, models do have it inland
anywhere the south Texas / northern Mexico coast. Again, and this
cannot be stressed enough, confidence in track forecast and
intensity remains low and this is something that will be closely
monitored through this week.

Stigger/87



&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mainly VFR conditions to trend throughout the evening hour, save
some coastal locations along Acadiana and south of I-10 which may
continue to see some VCTS through the early evening hours. Winds
will generally remain lighter out of the south and may become
variable at times through dawn. A weak trough axis will shift west
along Coastal LA and TX through the afternoon bringing Isolated
to scattered VCTS.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  97  76  95 /   0  30   0  30
LCH  80  91  79  92 /   0  60  10  50
LFT  81  93  80  94 /  10  80  10  70
BPT  79  93  79  93 /   0  60   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-152>154-252>254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ027>029-
     033.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ030>032-073-074-
     141>143-241>243.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-
     259-260.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ180-259-
     260.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...30